[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
711 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 20.0N 61.6W at 15/2100
UTC or 139 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 15
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 18N-23N between 55W-61W.
WNW general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
two followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. On
the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to
the northeast of the Leeward Islands through tonight. However,
interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the
storm has passed north of the area. It is possible that locally
heavy rainfall may reach the areas of the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as Josephine passes
to the northeast of that area. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 39.4N 63.2W at 15/2100 UTC
or 621 nm SW of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 19 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 38N-42N between 50W-60W. Kyle will continue
moving ENE through the next few days while transitioning into a
post tropical system. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave axis mainly south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 13N17W to
14N26W to 13N34W. The ITCZ stretches from 13N34W to 11N42W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 10N46W to 07N55W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-16N and east of
21W. Another area of scattered showers prevails from 07N-12N
between 52W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge prevails across the basin. Scattered moderate
convection is over the northeast Gulf mainly north of 28N and E
of 88W, including the Florida peninsula. Another are of scattered
showers is noted over the Bay of Campeche, enhanced by diurnal
heating. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 ft or less are over
the basin.

High pressure will continue supporting gentle winds and slight
seas across the basin through early next week. Locally fresh winds
are possible each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of
Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak
cold front may approach the northern Gulf coast Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Josephine, which is expected to pass northeast of the Leeward
Islands this weekend.

Aside from these areas, scattered moderate to strong convection
is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 77W-86W. Scattered
showers are over the Windward Islands.

Tropical Storm Josephine will continue moving WNW close to the
northern Leeward Islands enhancing winds/seas through early next
week. Elsewhere, fresh trade winds will continue across the
south-central Caribbean, with strongest winds expected near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical systems
and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered near 31N50W.

Tropical Storm Josephine will move to 20.8N 63.4W Sun morning,
22.1N 65.5W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near
23.4N 67.4W Mon morning, 24.9N 68.6W Mon afternoon, become a
remnant low and move to 26.3N 69.3W Tue morning. Elsewhere, a
persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into
the Gulf of Mexico will conitnue supporting gentle to moderate
southeast winds.

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net