[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 18.9N 58.4W at 15/0900
UTC or 270 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 13
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong
convection exists within 180 nm of the center NE semicircle, and
within 90 nm SW semicircle. Josephine should pass far enough to
the northeast of the Leeward Islands during the weekend in order
to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue
to monitor its progress until the storm has pass north of the a
rea.It is possible that locally heavy rainfall may reach the areas
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico, as Josephine passes to the northeast of that area. It is
possible that isolated flooding may happen in Puerto Rico through
Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 38.7N 68.0W at 15/0900 UTC
or 240 nm SE of Providence Rhode Island moving ENE at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm of the center in the SE semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection has
developed in associated with this wave from 10N to 12N between 40W
and 44W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 22N southward into
Central America, moving west at 15 kt. Low pressure is forecast to
form in the Eastern Pacific in association with this wave this
weekend. Numerous strong convection is ahead of this wave over
much of Central America, where heavy rainfall is possible this
weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to
15N27W to 12N37W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N40W to 10N54W to
13N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
located within 180 nm either side of both the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging across the northern Gulf of Mexico is
bringing dry conditions with light to gentle winds and seas of 4
ft or less to the basin.

This high will support gentle winds and slight seas across the
basin through early next week. Locally fresh winds are possible
each night through Sun night in the eastern Bay of Campeche near
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold front may
approach the northern Gulf coast Tue.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Josephine, which is expected to pass well north and east of the
Leeward Islands this weekend.

Please also see the tropical waves section for information on
western Caribbean tropical wave that may produce flooding rainfall
over portions of Central America this weekend.

Aside from these areas, scattered moderate convection is noted
between 17N and 21N between 75W and 85W. Fresh trade winds along
with seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring N of Colombia in the SW
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper level trough extends from Bermuda to Cuba. This is
producing some moderate convection in the Central Bahamas.

A surface trough to the NE of Tropical Storm Josephine (see
Special Features section above) stretches from from 32N44W to
24N52W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 120 miles of
this trough. Otherwise high pressure extending along 30N is
dominating weather N of 26N.

 A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the
Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds. This persistent high pressure ridge extending from the
Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate
southeast winds well into next week.

$$
KONARIK
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