[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110624
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 10N35W, along a
tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N-14N between 36W-39W. Environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for development to occur, and a
tropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while the disturbance moves generally westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development
by the end of the week. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see
the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis near the coast of Africa along 19W,
from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N-13N between 18W-22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 35W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Please see the Special Features
section for information about the potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 53W from 21N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are near the
northern portions of the wave axis from 15N-22N between 59W-55W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 73W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are near
the northern portion of this wave in southern Haiti.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 88W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 14N-20N between 86W-89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 13N22W to 10N44W. The ITCZ continues from 10N44W to
09N52W, then continues from 10N54W to the coast of Venezuela near
09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the
monsoon trough between 24W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the eastern and central Gulf
anchored by a 1018 mb high near 28N85W. A trough is in the SW Gulf
from 21N96W to 19N96W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along
the trough and the SW Gulf, S of 23N between 91W-96W. Isolated
thunderstorms are also noted near the Florida Panhandle. Light to
gentle winds are noted across the Gulf with moderate winds in the
SW basin. Seas range from 1-3 ft.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area this week.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening for the
next several nights in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the
Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, S of
14N between 79W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are also in the NW
Caribbean. Otherwise, isolated showers are seen moving across the
Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong winds are in the south-central
Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds in the central basin. Fresh
winds are also observed in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades are seen elsewhere. Seas range
from 3-7 ft with upwards of 10 ft in the west-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean waters this week, with near gale-force winds
expected to pulse at night near the coast of Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse for the next couple nights through the Windward Passage.
Winds and seas will increase over the Tropical N Atlantic waters
Tue night and Wed as a tropical wave crosses the region. Another
tropical wave, possibly accompanied by a trough or low pressure
system, could increase winds and seas over the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Fri through Sat.

An intensification of the Panamanian low may cause an enhancement
of moisture over the southern half of Central America late this
week. As a result, heavy rain is possible late this week over
portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The rains could lead
to localized flooding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 31N72W to
26N77W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted along it. Thunderstorms
are pushing off the NE Florida coast into the Atlantic, N of 29N
and W of 80W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 31N63W to
26N62W with isolated thunderstorms within its vicinity. A third
trough is analyzed from 31N55W to 25N59W with no convection
associated with it. High pressure stretches across the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1024 mb high near 32N44W. A trough is in the
eastern Atlantic from 31N27W to 26N26W with no significant
convection. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin with
fresh to strong northerly winds over the Canary Islands. Seas
range 2-5 ft.

Weak low pressure centered near 29N73W is expected to dissipate
overnight or early Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
each night near the coast of Hispaniola and over the approach to
the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W Tue
night and Wed as a tropical wave crosses the region. Another
tropical wave, possibly accompanied by a trough or low pressure
system, could increase winds and seas E of 65W Fri night through
Sat night.

$$
AReinhart
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