[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 10N33W, along a
tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N-13N between 30W-38W. Environmental conditions are
conducive for some further development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two while the disturbance moves
W to WNW at 10-15 kt across the tropical Atlantic. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
48 hours. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis along the coast of
Africa from 04N-20N. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 09N-15N between 15W-21W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 33W south of 17N,
moving W at 15 kt. Please see the Special Features section for
information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 49W south of 22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near and within 180
nm E of the wave axis from 18N-22N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is estimated based on
continuity near 70W south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is
currently difficult to track, and no significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 86W south of 19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 12N-18N between 82W-87W, including the
Gulf of Honduras, eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua and the
waters within 60 nm of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua.
Enhanced moisture seen on TPW imagery is present over the area,
as well as large-scale upper-level divergence and low-level
convergence.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 14N19W to a 1009 mb low near 10N33W to 11N48W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N52W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 09.5N-13N between
41W-43W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the ITCZ west
of 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over most of the northern and central
Gulf of Mexico. A 1020 mb high is near 28N87W. Mid- to upper-
level troughing prevails over the area, leading to scattered
showers and tstorms across much of the eastern Gulf, east of
91W. The NW Gulf north of 26N between 92W-95W is a little drier,
with very little in the way of precipitation. A surface trough
over the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 18N94W is enhancing scattered
moderate to strong convection from 19N-21N between 94.5W-96.5W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are elsewhere south of 26N west of
90W, except for the eastern Bay of Campeche, which is
experiencing partly cloudy skies. The latest ASCAT pass shows
gentle wind speeds prevailing over most of the basin due to the
surface ridging. Moderate SE winds are in the SW Gulf.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area this
week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening
for the next several nights in the eastern Bay of Campeche near
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level anticylonic flow covers the eastern half of the
basin. Relatively dry air is over the same area. The east
Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered strong convection
over the SW Caribbean, north of Panama and east of Central
America. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the
southern Caribbean from 11N-16N between 71W-82W.

Strong to near gale-force winds over the south-central Caribbean
this morning will result in large NE swell across the waters S
of 18N and W of 72W through tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds
will prevail across the south-central Caribbean waters this
week, with near gale-force winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse for the next couple nights through the Windward
Passage. The system mentioned in the Special Features section
may approach the Lesser Antilles by late this week or early in
the weekend as a strong tropical wave or possibly a tropical
cyclone.

An intensification of the Panamanian low may cause an
enhancement of moisture over the southern half of Central
America late this week. As a result, heavy rain is possible
late this week over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and
Nicaragua. The rains could lead to localized flooding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A relatively weak pressure pattern persists across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting light to gentle winds
over the waters N of 24N and W of 50W. Weak low pressure lingers
well offshore of the NW Bahamas near 29N73W, with scattered
tstorms near the low and its associated trough that extends from
31N72W to 27N76W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 30N61W
to 24N62W, and scattered tstorms are occurring within 90 nm of
this feature. Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is centered
near 31N37W.

Weak low pressure centered near 29N73W will remain nearly
stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas today, then dissipate
by tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night
near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward
Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle
and latter parts of this week as a couple of tropical waves
cross the region.

$$
Hagen
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