[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 23W south of 15N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 26W and 31W. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next few days
while it moves westward across the eastern Atlantic. This system
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
five days. Please see the latest North Atlantic Tropical Weather
Outlook for more information.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 43W south of 19N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 39W and 47W.

A tropical wave axis is near the Windward Islands along 61W south
of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 78W south of 20N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted N of 17N
within 90 nm east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 11N21W to 09N28W to 11N35W to 10N54W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N54W to 09N61W. Besides the convection described above in
the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 50W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near
28N85W, with a ridge axis extending across the northern waters.
Overnight scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds N of
25N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N over the Bay of
Campeche, where seas are 3-6 ft based on recent altimeter data.
Elsewhere, seas are 3 ft or less. Recent satellite and lightning
data reveal numerous strong thunderstorms over the SW Gulf,
generally S of 21N and W of 94W. Gusty winds and locally rough
seas are possible in and near stronger thunderstorms.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds across much of the area through the middle of next
week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening in
the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of fresh to strong trades persists across the central
Caribbean, in the wake of a tropical wave that is analyzed near
78W this morning. Overnight scatterometer data showed near gale-
force winds near the coast of Colombia. Available altimeter data
indicates seas of 8 ft or greater have spread across the waters
between Hispaniola and Colombia. Seas likely peak around 12-13 ft
just off the coast of Barranquilla. Elsewhere, fresh winds are
noted in the Gulf of Honduras region. Isolated thunderstorms are
seen in recent satellite and lightning data over the eastern
Caribbean offshore waters, as well as over the SW Caribbean to the
north of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Near gale-force winds
will pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
early this morning and again tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trades will continue for the next several days. Winds and
seas may increase over the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the
middle of next week as a tropical wave crosses the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A relatively weak pressure pattern prevails across the subtropical
Atlantic waters this morning. Weak low pressure continues to
meander well offshore of Florida and the NW Bahamas near 29N73W,
with isolated showers and thunderstorms noted in the vicinity of
its surface trough. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N61W,
and a series of weak surface troughs are located to the east of
this high between 40W and 60W. No significant convection is
occurring with any of these features. Moderate trades prevail
across much of the central Atlantic waters S of 20N, where seas
are generally 4-7 ft. Farther east, strong northerly winds are
occurring off the coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania, with
seas of 7-9 ft.

Weak low pressure centered near 29N73W will remain nearly
stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas through Mon, then
dissipate by Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
each night near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the
Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the
middle of next week as a tropical wave crosses the region.

$$
B Reinhart
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