[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 21W south of 17N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 11N between 19W and 26W.

A tropical wave axis is near 42W south of 19N, moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 15N between 39W and 44W.

A tropical wave axis is near 60W south of 18N, moving west at 15
kt. Scattered showers are present in the vicinity of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave axis is near 77W south of 20N, moving west at 10-
15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal from 15N17W
to 10N23W to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N48W to 09N59W. A
1015 mb low was found along the monsoon trough on scatterometer
near 12N39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 27W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 28N85W and remains the
dominant feature throughout the basin. An area of thunderstorms is
right along the Tampa Bay coast. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche, S of 21N between 91W-
96W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Bay of Campeche
with gentle winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas range from 2-5 ft.

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds across much of the area through the middle of next
week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening in
the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous moderate to strong convection is along the southern
Central American coastline, S of 13N between 76W-84W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted between Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands in addition to isolated thunderstorms across the NW
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated thunderstorms
are also observed in the central Caribbean. Near gale-force winds
are north of Colombia with fresh to strong winds across the
central Caribbean. Fresh winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the eastern and NW basin. Seas
range 4-8 ft with upwards of 10 ft north of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south-central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to
near gale-force speeds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela overnight and again on Sun night. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh trades will continue for the next several days. Winds
and seas may increase over the Tropical N Atlantic waters during
the middle of next week as a tropical wave enters the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb surface low is analyzed in the western Atlantic near
28N73W with a surface trough extending along the low from 30N71W
to 24N79W. Showers are in the vicinity of this feature with
isolated thunderstorms in the northern Bahamas. High pressure
ridging spans across the rest of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1022
mb high pressure near 27N65W and a 1024 mb high near 29N35W.
Several surface troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic: one
from 30N57W to 24N55W, another from 30N47W to 20N51W, and the last
one from 31N40W to 27N43W. No significant convection is
associated with these features. Light to gentle winds are noted
across the Atlantic, with fresh to strong northerly winds off the
coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas range 3-7 ft.

Weak low pressure centered near 28N72W will remain nearly
stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas through Sun night, then
dissipate by Mon. Moderate easterly winds will prevail S of 23N
between the Great Bahama Bank and 70W, with fresh to strong winds
pulsing each night near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach
to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase during the
middle of next week E of 65W as a tropical wave enters the region.

$$
AReinhart
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