[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered convection is
located along and south of the monsoon trough in that area
from 02N-10N between 25W-33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 18N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 03N to 12N between 36W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 50W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 18N southward,
moving W 15-20 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center
over the central Caribbean south of Jamaica is masking the wave
signature in satellite imagery. A broad area of moderate to
strong convection is seen along the wave axis and it is been
enhanced by where the wave axis meets the Pacific monsoon trough
in the coastal areas of Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W to 07N40W. The ITCZ begins
west of the tropical wave along 41W from 07N43W to 08N51W, then
resumes from 09N55W to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along and about 200 nm southeast of the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N91W. The ridge extends
across the Gulf supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
2 to 4 ft seas across the basin, except for fresh winds and 3 to
5 ft seas off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. A trough is
analyzed in the Bay of Campeche near 21N93W to 17N92W. Scattered
convection is over the area south of 20N. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen in the southeast Gulf near the coast from
Fort Myers to Marco Island, Florida.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable wind will dominate
the Gulf N of 22N through most of the period as a weak surface
ridge prevails. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
expected at night in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche and
along the Yucatan peninsula associated with a surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center south of Jamaica and
is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection along the
monsoon trough across southwest portions of the Caribbean Sea,
south of 14N between 75W and 81W. Stable sinking air dominates the
middle and upper levels of the eastern Caribbean due to the
presence of an upper level low east of the Leeward Islands.

The western periphery of a central Atlantic ridge extends W-SW to
near 65W this morning. The associated pressure gradient between
this high and low pressure across Colombia and the monsoon trough
is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean between 68W and 74W, where seas are running 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere light to moderate trade prevail across western portions
while moderate trades are seen across eastern portions and the
Tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High across the W Atlantic along
with the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough will
support fresh to strong trades across the central basin through
today, then will expand to the SW Caribbean tonight and continue
through Sun night. Near gale-force winds are expected over
Colombia adjacent waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat and Sun
nights. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras and in the E Caribbean during this period as well.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is seen across the NW waters
between 78W and 80W from the NW Bahamas to beyond 31N. This is
being supported by the broad upper low dominating the Gulf of
Mexico. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward and across the central waters to a 1017 mb low
pressure near 32N50W. A surface trough extends southwest from the
low to 25N58W, then toward the northeast to 28N64W. A 1024 mb
surface high is north of this trough across the western Atlantic
near 36N61W and extends to offshore of NE Florida. A weak and
narrow ridge extends from the NE Atlantic W-SW to near 65W,
passing south of the surface trough. This pattern is producing
moderate SE to S winds from the N coast of Hispaniola to offshore
of NE Florida.

High pressure across the W Atlantic extends southwestward to the
NW waters and will persist into the weekend. This will support
moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds across the Great Bahama Bank
and N of Hispaniola through the weekend, while fresh to strong
winds are expected N of Hispaniola at night. A broad and weak low
pressure will develop over the NE offshore waters today and shift
to the north-central waters by Fri before dissipating over the
weekend.

$$

MTorres
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