[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS81 KOKX 022313
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CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-030600-

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
713 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and
Southern Connecticut

**TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bronx, Eastern
      Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
      Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk,
      Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau,
      Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Queens,
      Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten
      Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester,
      Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western
      Passaic, and Western Union

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bronx, Eastern Bergen,
      Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings
      (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk,
      Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau,
      Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Northern Queens,
      Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten
      Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester,
      Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western
      Passaic, and Western Union

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 950 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about
      1020 miles south-southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 27.8N 79.8W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 345 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the East-Central Florida coast
will continue to move to the north-northwest, then turn due north
late tonight. It will continue to move north on Monday along the
Southeastern US Coast. Isaias will then weaken slowly as it
accelerates and curves northeast over the Carolinas Tuesday morning,
then over our area by Tuesday evening. There is still some timing
and intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence is
increasing with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and
impacts.

The main threats with this system are expected to involve locally
heavy rainfall, strong winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
along with high surf and dangerous rip currents.

Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches
likely, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heavy
rain is most likely to occur across western parts of the area from
late Monday night through Tuesday night, and eastern sections
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur
across coastal sections late in the day Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. There is a moderate potential for coastal flood inundation
of 1 to 2 feet above ground level, with a low potential for up to 3
feet, for the most vulnerable shoreline and coastal locations.
Dangerous marine conditions are likely across all of the coastal
waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. High surf and dangerous rip
currents are expected along the ocean beaches Monday through
Wednesday.

The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are then expected to diminish
quickly from southwest to northeast across the area late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and the
Lower Hudson Valley.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
      valleys.
    - Flood waters may enter some structures within multiple
      communities. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Several road and bridge closures are possible.

* WIND:
Prepare for strong winds having possible significant impacts across the
entire area, especially south facing shorelines.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials is possible. Some
      damage to mobile homes is possible, especially if unanchored.
      Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted. Some fences and roadway
      signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
    - Dangerous rip currents are expected along the ocean facing beaches
      through Wednesday.
    - High surf is expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Inundation of 1 to 2 feet, with locally up to 3 feet possible
      with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and
      in low lying coastal communities.
    - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - High surf will cause areas of dune erosion with localized
      washovers along the Atlantic ocean beach front. Strong and
      frequent rip currents.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a limited tornado threat across Southeast New York,
Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a mobile home, upper floors of a high rise building, or on a
boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or
near a river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county where you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local
news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible
changes to the forecast.

There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to
receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a
tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
  http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
  http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 12 AM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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