[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092020
620 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This product covers East Central Florida

**CENTER OF ISAIAS NORTHWEST OF ANDROS ISLAND AND WILL DRAW CLOSER
TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia, Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard,
      Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 260 miles south-southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about
      170 miles south-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 25.1N 78.7W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Isaias, centered northwest of Andros Island has weakened to a tropical
storm. However, as Isaias moves north to northwest between coastal
southeast Florida and the northwest Bahamas tonight it is forecast to
restrengthen to a category one hurricane. Isaias is forecast to remain
a category one hurricane as it moves northward and parallel to the
east central Florida coast, weakening again to a tropical storm as it
nears the Cape. However, slight fluctuations of track and intensity
may still occur and hurricane conditions along the coast, especially
along the barrier islands, are still possible. Isaias is expected to
make its closest point of approach to the Treasure Coast counties of
Martin, Saint Lucie, and Indian River from early Sunday morning into
the afternoon, the Brevard County coast from Sunday afternoon through
about midnight, and just offshore the Volusia County coast overnight
Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning continues for all coastal counties of east central
Florida. Based on the latest forecast, tropical storm conditions will
reach the Treasure Coast counties past midnight tonight, with hurricane
conditions possible along the immediate coast Sunday morning into
early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to reach
Brevard county near sunrise Sunday, with the potential for hurricane
conditions Sunday afternoon until about midnight. Tropical storm
conditions will begin to overspread coastal Volusia County late Sunday
afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from late Sunday evening
through a little past midnight.

Tropical storm conditions are also expected to reach much of the
interior of east central Florida from south to north from early Sunday
morning through early Monday morning. This includes Okeechobee,
Osceola, Orange, Seminole and inland Volusia County. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for these counties.

Rain bands with gusty squalls from Isaias will precede the worst of
the weather conditions by several hours. A squall band is already
moving across the Treasure coast this afternoon, and the squalls will
increase in coverage and intensity tonight, then spread north and
inland through Sunday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will occur in some
of the squalls along the coast this evening and will increase up to as
high 70 to 80 mph as Isaias makes its closest approach. Farther
inland, gusts could reach as high as 50 to 60 mph in squalls.

Total rainfall amounts are expected to reach 3 to 5 inches along the
coastal counties, decreasing to between 1 and 3 inches across the
interior. Heavy rainfall is likely to cause flooding of urban and
other poorly drained and low-lying areas. This is especially the case
in Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin Counties, where the late
spring and summer were quite wet.

A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect along the east central Florida
coast. There is the potential for life threatening storm surge along
portions of the immediate coast that are typically vulnerable to
elevated ocean levels or where dune erosion has occurred. Low land
flooding is also possible along the intracoastal waterways and in
vulnerable low lands near inlets and other low areas near the coast.

Long period swells from Isaias will will maintain a high risk for
numerous strong rip currents through the weekend. Seas will build to
dangerous levels of 20 feet or higher, with large breaking waves in
excess of 7 feet. Engaging in any sort of boating or beach activity
will become extremely dangerous, so staying away from the surf is
imperative! Coupled with increasing astronomical high tides due to the
approaching full moon, moderate to locally significant beach erosion
will be likely during the next several high tide cycles, starting with
this evening's high tide around 730 PM.

Protective actions should be rushed to completion. Put your personal
hurricane safety plan for yourself and family into action, and follow
recommendations of county emergency management officials.

Persons in east central Florida should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts, statements and warnings from the National Hurricane Center,
and your National Weather Service office in Melbourne.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across all coastal counties of east central Florida. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, Seminole
and inland Volusia Counties.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the east central Florida coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across along the immediate coast of Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River,
and Brevard Counties. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Weitlich/Volkmer
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