[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092020
529 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**ISAIAS MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS**
**HURRICANE FORECAST TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST FL COAST SUNDAY NIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 520 miles south-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 460
      miles southeast of Flagler Beach FL
    - 23.9N 77.1W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias continues on a northwest track across the southern
Bahamas early this morning and this path is expected to continue
through tonight as the storm approaches the southeast Florida Atlantic
coast. Isaias is expected to begin a northward turn Sunday, which will
bring the hurricane near the northeast Florida Atlantic coast Sunday
night and Monday. Due to the close approach of Isaias to the northeast
Florida coast, a Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch continue in
effect for coastal St. Johns County and coastal Flagler County.
Tropical storm conditions may reach the coast Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night and continue into Monday, then departing Monday afternoon
and Monday night. The most intense part of the storm is most likely
going to be late Sunday night. Gusts up to near hurricane force are
not out of the question along the coast south of Ponte Vedra.

Isaias will also bring a threat of storm surge flooding with large
battering waves to the coast. Significant to severe beach erosion will
be likely for some of the area beaches. Increased coastal flooding
from storm surge may begin Sunday and continue through midday Monday.

Life-threatening rip currents and building rough seas are expected
today through Monday and swimming is not recommended at area beaches.
Bands of rainfall with gusts near tropical storm force will be begin
to increase over the local Atlantic waters and portions of northeast
Florida tonight. Localized heavy rainfall exceeding 3 inches will be
possible for coastal areas.

If the track of Isaias were to shift closer to the coast, tropical
storm conditions could spread farther north and inland over northeast
Florida and possibly parts of coastal southeast Georgia. Therefore it
is important to continue to monitor trends with future advisories. Do
not focus on specific storm category; all hurricanes and tropical
storms can, among other hazards, bring life-threatening storm surge
and damaging winds.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
St Johns and Flagler counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across for the remainder of coastal northeast Florida and coastal
southeast Georgia.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across St Johns and Flagler counties. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the St Johns River Basin including Duval, Nassau,
Camden, and Glynn counties.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across coastal counties. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Life-threatening rip currents and dangerous surf conditions are
developing. Swimming is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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