[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1721 UTC Thu Apr 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo France has issued a gale warning
for the Agadir area through 01/0000 UTC. For more information,
please visit the website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 00N35W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S49W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 18W to the
African coast. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 80 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W and 32W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is also noted close to the
Brazilian coast from 04S to 03N between 35W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An energetic upper level trough is moving across the southeastern
U.S. and extends S across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The trough is supporting a cold front that extends from northern
Tampa Bay to near 23N89W to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. A
line of thunderstorms continues to press southeastward in the
eastern Gulf from 23N-27N between 81W-84W. These storms include
frequent lightning and gusty winds. Scattered thunderstorms are
also in the western Bay of Campeche from 20N- 23N between 96W-
97W. Surface ridging extends across the western Gulf anchored by
a 1021 mb high in Texas near 32N98W. Gentle to moderate NNW winds
are north of the cold front with moderate southerly winds ahead
of the front in the eastern Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft.
Light to medium smoke is reported in the Bay of Campeche which
could reduce visibility.

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, will continue across the
SE Gulf this morning, ahead of a cold front crossing the Gulf.
The front extends from 28N82W to 24N87W to the coast of Mexico
near 19N96W and will continue SE to exit the basin by Fri
morning. High pres will settle over the NE Gulf behind the front
Fri night through early next week. Smoke due to agricultural
fires over southern Mexico will persist over the far SW Gulf for
at least the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure aloft and stable atmospheric conditions prevail
across the eastern Caribbean E of 70W. Isolated showers are
moving across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean
off the coasts of Panama and Colombia, S of 10N between 76W-82W.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean
and the Gulf of Honduras. Light to moderate trades are seen
elsewhere. Seas range 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to heavy smoke is seen
in the Gulf of Honduras which is reducing visibility.

A weak high pressure ridge over the western Atlc will maintain
moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean through
Mon night. Winds elsewhere in the basin will be light to moderate.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America will continue
to reduce visibility over the western Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the western Atlantic from 31N81W to 30N81W.
Scattered moderate convection is moving southeast across the
western Atlantic waters from 25N-31N between 76W-80W. Fresh to
strong winds are seen in this portion of the basin along the
Florida coast. Seas are up to 9 ft. Elsewhere, a cold front
enters the central Atlantic near 31N46W and stretches westward to
near 26N55W to near 26N71W. Showers are within 90 nm east of the
front. Light to moderate NE winds are behind this front. Surface
ridging spans across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb
high near 30N21W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast and over the NW
forecast waters today, preceded by fresh to strong S winds and
active weather from the NW Bahamas to offshore of northeast
Florida. The front will continue E and reach from Bermuda to the
south central Bahamas Sat, before weakening and becoming
stationary from near 27N65W to the southern Bahamas to eastern
Cuba Sun. Weak high pres will settle across the northern waters
Mon ahead of the next front to exit the SE U.S.


$$
AReinhart
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