[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to
04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 01S34W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
180 nm of the ITCZ west of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous mid- to upper-level trough extends into the NW Gulf,
driving a cold front southward toward the Texas coast. A squall
line that extended from 29N88W to 26N90W to 25N95W earlier this
afternoon continues moving SE across the northern Gulf, bringing
frequent lightning and strong, gusty winds. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh southerly winds are noted in buoy observations over the
NE Gulf. Seas are generally 3-6 ft across the Gulf, although
locally higher seas are likely in thunderstorms along the squall
line. Earlier, visible satellite imagery depicted smoke across
the Bay of Campeche that could reduce visibility at times over the
SW Gulf.

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, will persist in the central
and northeast Gulf this evening ahead of a cold front moving
through the Texas coastal plains. The front will move into the
northwest Gulf by early this evening, reach from near Tampa
Florida to near Tampico Mexico early Thu, stall from the Straits
of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico early Fri, then will dissipate
through Sat. High pressure will settle into the NE Gulf behind the
front Fri night through early next week. Smoke due to agricultural
fires over southern Mexico will persist over the far southwest
Gulf into mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, with a plume of 7-9 ft seas extending
downstream of Barranquilla. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades
continue across much of the basin. Some locally fresh winds are
found near the northern coast of Honduras. Smoke from fires in
Central America is likely limiting visibility in the Gulf of
Honduras and the Yucatan Basin. No significant convection is
noted in the Caribbean this evening.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift NE through
Fri, allowing for diminished tradewinds across the E and central
Caribbean from Fri into early next week. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America will continue to reduce visibility over
the western Gulf of Honduras. Some improvement of these conditions
may occur by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from 32N50W to 26N60W to 24N67W, where
it transitions to a stationary front and reaches to the central
Bahamas. The latest satellite and lightning data indicate
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue within 120
nm of the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring
over the offshore waters N and NE of the Bahamas, between the
front and 1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N69W. Farther
east, a high pressure ridge dominates the central and eastern
Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades generally south of 22N and
5-8 ft seas based on earlier altimeter data.

A weak cold front is stalling along roughly 24N through the
central Bahamas, and will dissipate through tonight. Another cold
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into the NW
forecast waters Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds
and active weather beginning by early evening off northeast
Florida and north of Grand Bahama. The front will continue east
and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas Sat, before
becoming a weakening stationary front from near 27N65W to the
southern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Sun.

$$
B Reinhart
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