[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W
to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated
thunderstorms are within 75 nm of the monsoon trough E of 14W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ
from 06S-04N and W of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous upper level trough extends into the northwestern Gulf
and supports a cold front pressing southward across Texas. A
squall line, producing frequent lightning and gusty winds, is
moving southward across the NW Gulf from 28N89W to 26N94W to
27N97W. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the NW Gulf
along the Texas and Louisiana coast in addition to the north-
central Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds are behind the squall
line with gale force gusts. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
are in the central and eastern Gulf and light winds in the
southern basin. Seas range 4 to 6 ft.  Light to moderate smoke
from fires across Mexico could lower visibilities across the Bay
of Campeche.

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, will persist in
the northwest and north central Gulf this afternoon ahead of a
cold front moving through the southern Plains. The front will
move into the northwest Gulf later this afternoon, reach from
near Tampa Florida to near Tampico Mexico by early Thu, stall
from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz Mexico early Fri,
then will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will settle into
the NE Gulf behind the front Fri night through Sun. Smoke due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico may improve slightly
thorugh late week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Stable atmospheric conditions persist across the eastern
Caribbean, scattered showers prevail. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa
Rica, Panama, and Colombia, S of 14N between 75W-83W. Fresh to
strong tradewinds continue across the south central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh trades throughout the rest of the basin.
Seas range from 3 to 6 ft. Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras
is limiting visibility in that region.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift NE through
Fri, allowing for diminished tradewinds across the E and central
Caribbean Fri through Sun. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Central America will continue to reduce visibility over the
western Gulf of Honduras. Some improvement of these conditions
may occur by the end of the week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N54W to 24N68W, then stalls from
that point to 23N77W. Scattered thunderstorms are within 80 nm
of the stationary front and scattered showers are within 165 nm
east of the cold front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind
the front.  High pressure extends across the rest of the
Atlantic anchored by two 1025 mb highs near 31N22W and 28N38W.

A weak cold front is stalling along roughly 24N through the
central Bahamas, and will dissipate through tonight. Another
cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast and into
the NW forecast waters Thu preceded by fresh to strong southerly
winds and active weather beginning late today. The front will
continue east and reach from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas
Sat, before becoming a weakening stationary from near 27N65W to
the southern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Sun.


$$
AReinhart
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