[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-
11N between 07W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N
between 20W-28W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N
between 28W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 23/1500 UTC, a cold front is just off the Texas coast from
30N94W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-30N
between 90W-95W. 15 kt northerly winds are W of the front. 15-25
kt southerly winds are over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.
Strongest winds are over the central Gulf where the surface
pressure gradient is the tightest. A 1004 mb low is centered
near Tampico Mexico. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
low. Satellite imagery shows dense smoke over the south central
and southwestern Gulf, south of 26N and west of 88W.

The cold front will cross the northern Gulf of Mexico through
Friday. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf Friday
night, then extend from southern Florida to the SW Gulf Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. A 1010 mb low is centered
over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the low. Scattered showers are also over Panama and Costa Rica.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. Further S, scattered showers are over the Windward
Islands. Dense smoke is noted on satellite imagery over Honduras,
the Gulf of Honduras, Guatemala, the Yucatan Peninsula, and S
Mexico.

Strong E to SE winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of
Honduras through Saturday night. A ridge across the western
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south
central Caribbean through Sunday. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected elsewhere through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 33N67W. A dying cold
front passes through 31N53W to 23N65W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-32N between 50W-53W. A second dying cold
front is from 31N59W to 27N70W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent with this front. A 1028 mb high is over
the E Atlantic near 36N32W.

The pair of weak cold fronts stretching across the central and
western Atlantic will dissipate later today. A cold front will
move off the SE U.S. coast Friday through Saturday morning. Strong
to near gale force S to SW winds are expected ahead of this front
north of the Bahamas through Friday. Another cold front will move
off the coast of northern Florida Saturday night, then extend
from near Bermuda to S Florida on Sunday.

$$
Formosa
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