[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211706
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N16W where scatterometer imagery
indicates it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N30W to
00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ E
of 32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
01N-05S between 32W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N-03S between 42W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Miami Florida near
26N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N89W. Scattered showers
are within 45 nm of the front. A 1017 mb high is centered over S
Mississippi near 32N91W. 5-15 kt easterly winds are over the N
Gulf. Dense smoke is over the SW Gulf S of 24N.

The forecast calls for the cold front to exit the area this
evening. The next cold front is forecast to approach the NW Gulf
late Wed night into Thu morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds
are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the western half
of the Gulf by tonight. The front will reach from the western
Florida panhandle to near 26N92W by Thu night, then from
Apalachee Bay to the central Gulf and stationary to eastern
Mexico early Fri. This front is expected to shift east of the
area Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may precede
this front. Yet another cold front is expected to emerge off the
Texas coast to the NW Gulf late Fri night into early Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from near 24N60W to E Cuba. A 1011 mb
low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the low. Dense smoke is over the Gulf of
Honduras.   Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade
winds across the eastern Caribbean east of 75W. Mainly fresh
east to southeast trade winds are in the Gulf of Honduras and in
the south-central Caribbean section. Moderate winds are
elsewhere. Most of the basin is dry due to strong subsidence.

The forecast calls for the fresh trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras to increase to
strong at night through Wed night, then change little through
Sat as stronger high pressure builds north of the area.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to
moderate to fresh speeds beginning on Thu and continue through
Sat. The fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean will change
little through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from
31N65W to Miami Florida near 26N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm S of the front E of 72W. A 1026 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N38W. Ascat
data shows strong southwest winds east of the front to about 65W
and north of 27N. Fresh northwest to north winds are west of the
front to near 78W.

The forecast calls for the cold front to extend from 31N62W to
the Central Bahamas to central Cuba tonight. The front will
weaken as it moves east of the forecast waters Wed night.
Another cold front is forecast to move over the northwest part
of the offshore waters Thu night. Strong to possibly near gale
force southerly winds will precede the front and are expected
over the waters north of the Bahamas from Thu morning through
Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany
this front. High pressure will build in behind the front.

$$
Formosa
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