[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa from
Sierra Leone near 07N12W south-southwestward to 00N21W, where
scatterometer data suggested the ITCZ begins and continues to
00N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 200 nm north and south of the ITCZ between 27W-49W. A
second ITCZ is noted from 03S21W to 05N34W. Scattered showers
are seen along the boundary. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is also noted along the monsoon trough from 00N-05N
between 10W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A subtle weak upper-level shortwave trough, that is quickly
moving
eastward in a fast upper-level wind environment, is evident over
southern Louisiana. With the stationary front lingering north of
the area is being the focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity, the shortwave trough is providing additional
atmospheric
instability further enhancing this activity that is along and
inland the coast from 27N to 30N between 86W to 93W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf. ASCAT
data indicates moderate to fresh southeast winds across the
northern Gulf while light and gentle winds prevail to the south.
Isolated showers are also present over the Yucatan Peninsula with
some debris clouds streaming northeast into the Yucatan Channel
and
NW Cuba. Elsewhere, no shower activity is observed.

A cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf this evening, and
extend
from the Florida Big Bend to near 26N90W by Mon morning. Fresh
to strong
southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through Mon
evening as
the front moves across the area. Scattered thunderstorms, some
could be
strong to severe, are possible ahead of this front. The next
cold front
is forecast to approach the NW basin Wed night into Thu morning.
Fresh to
strong winds are forecast to develop ahead of the front over the
western
half of the Gulf by Tue night. Otherwise, smoke from
agricultural fires
in southern Mexico and Honduras could reduce visibility, mainly
in the
SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An E to W mid to upper-level ridge axis is over the Caribbean
along roughly along 17N. Strong subsidence from this ridge is
maintaining dry and stable weather conditions across the basin,
with little to no significant shower activity present. Only
isolated showers moving quickly westward over the northeastern
and north-central Caribbean waters are seen. ASCAT data shows
fresh trades in the central Caribbean, with strong trades near
the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the
Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere
across the basin.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds
in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through
Thu.
mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere during the
entire
period. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central
America could
reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of
Belize and
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front, associated to a rapidly intensifying storm system
well north of the area, extends southwestward from 30N59W to
29N75W. A jet-stream core with strong winds rounds the base of a
rather vigorous deep-layer trough, that is just north of the area
over the cold front. A large area of scattered moderate
convection
is quickly advancing eastward well ahead of the front over the
waters
north of 27N66W to 31N58W. ASCAT highlighted an area of fresh to
strong
southerly winds ahead of the front, north of 26N and between
48W-62W.

The cold front extending from 31N60W to 29N76W will sweep
southeastward
to east of the area early this afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds
are behind this front over the waters N of the Bahamas. A second
cold
front will move across the northwest waters by Mon afternoon and
across
the waters northeast of the Bahamas through Wed. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will precede this front N of 27N starting
tonight,
increasing to near gale force Mon morning through Mon evening.
These
winds will diminish back to fresh to strong speeds as they shift
eastward
across the northeast forecast waters Tue. Another cold front
will move
across the SE U.S. on Thu with strong S winds developing over the
NW forecast waters ahead of it.

$$
MTorres
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