[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190434
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
09N13W to 02N20W to 00N27W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 01S-06N between 22W-45W, and from 00N-07N between 08W-
15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Pensacola Florida to Houma
Louisiana. A warm front extends from Houma to Corpus Christi
Texas. Scattered moderate convection is along the north-central
Gulf Coast between Mobile Alabama and Houma Louisiana. Scattered
moderate convection is also seen near NE Mexico and Brownsville
Texas. Isolated moderate convection is present elsewhere near
the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate
wind speeds across the Gulf of Mexico, except for north of the
Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh winds are seen.

The warm front extending from southeastern Louisiana to southern
Texas will lift north of the area this morning. A cold front is
expected to reach the NW Gulf this evening, and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near 25N90W by Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected ahead of the front beginning early
this morning and continuing through Mon evening as the front
moves across the area. Scattered strong thunderstorms are
possible ahead of this front. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Honduras could reduce visibility,
mainly in the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An E-W mid- to upper-level ridge axis covers the Caribbean along
roughly 19N, keeping dry air over the basin with little to no
significant shower activity. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh
trades in the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the
coast of Colombia. Fresh trades are also seen in the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the basin.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras
through Thu. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected
elsewhere. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in Central
America could reduce visibility near the Yucatan Peninsula and
offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A rapidly deepening 992 mb storm force low well north of the
area near 40N65W extends a cold front from the low to 33N70W to
31N74W to the coast of Georgia. Well ahead of the cold front,
scattered moderate convection is seen north of 28N between
58W-70W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong S-SW winds ahead of
the front, north of 30N between 59W-73W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front is forecast to sweep
southeastward to east of 65W by early this evening. Fresh to
strong winds ahead of the front will shift east of 65W today.
Another cold front will move across the waters off NE Florida
late tonight and early Mon, then move northeast of the Bahamas
through Tue. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede this
front, increasing to near gale early Mon and through Mon
afternoon. These winds will diminish back to fresh to strong
speeds as they shift eastward Tue, and to the east of 65W Wed. A
weaker cold front will move across the waters east of NE Florida
Tue through Wed. High pressure behind this front will quickly
slide eastward through Thu as yet another cold front moves
across the southeastern U.S. Strong southerly winds will develop
over the waters ahead of this front on Thu.

Farther east, a surface trough from 23N55W to 16N58W is
producing scattered showers near its axis. A cold front enters
the area near 32N35W and extends to 29N42W, with isolated
showers near the front.

$$
Hagen
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