[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 205 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N14W, to 04N24W, and to 03N26W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N26W to the Equator along 35W, to the
Equator along 39W, to 01S42W and 01S45W. Precipitation: Numerous
strong from 05N to 09N between 10W and 13W in Sierra Leone and
Liberia. Scattered strong is within 150 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 13W and 18W, and within 200 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 11W and 18W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward between 30W and
55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center near 14N94W, in
the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 150 nm to the ESE of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad upper level
westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front is moving through Texas, from the eastern sections,
into south central Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 120 nm of the
U.S.A. Gulf coast states between 89W and 94W, from Mississippi
to Louisiana to Texas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and other possible rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico from
25N northward.

A ridge will dominate most of the Gulf waters this weekend. A
cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico early on
Saturday. The cold front will weaken, and move northward on
Saturday night. A second cold front is expected to reach the
Texas coast on Sunday night. It is possible that smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras may reduce
the visibility, mainly in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFE model for 250 mb, and the current water vapor satellite
imagery, show an anticyclonic circulation center near 14N94W, in
the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 150 nm to the ESE of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly all of the Caribbean Sea. An
upper level trough extends from the island of Dominica in the
eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to a cyclonic circulation center
that is in Gulf of Venezuela. Comparatively drier air is
apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire Caribbean Sea.
24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, ending at 18/0000 UTC, are:
0.01 in Guadeloupe.

Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low
level clouds, to the east of the line that runs from the Yucatan
Channel to 15N80W to 13N70W.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Sunday. Fresh to
strong winds also are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Wednesday. It is possible that smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America may reduce the visibility near the
Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W to 27N57W, to 25N62W and
25N72W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from
25N72W, across the NW Bahamas, to the coast of Florida near
26N80W. A second cold front is about 270 nm to the NW of the
32N48W cold front, from 60W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals,
in inches, ending at 18/0000 UTC, are: 0.77 in Bermuda.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 150 nm to the north of the stationary front, from 76W
westward to the coast of Florida, and inland in Florida.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 24N northward from 50W
westward. Rainshowers are possible, in the remainder of the
area, from 26N northward between 25W and 50W.

A far eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough extends from 35N11W,
to 31N11W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N northward
from 30W eastward.

A cold front will move across the northern waters on Saturday
night and Sunday. The front will stall and weaken on Sunday
night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of this
front. A second cold front will move into the northern waters on
Monday night.

$$
mt
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