[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
110 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of
Africa near 09N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to
03N41W. A surface trough extends from 08N47W to 01N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
ITCZ and trough from 00N to 10N between 22W and 51W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Venice Florida to
27N82W to 25N86W to 19N92W. The front then becomes stationary,
extending across southeast Mexico. The upper dynamics supporting
this front are lifting out of the area, and it is weakening and
slowing down. With this, only scattered showers are noted along
the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds with seas to 8 ft are
evident across the northern half of the basin. These winds and
seas will diminish through the morning as the front weakens.

The cold front will drift little and stall through late today,
before dissipating over the southeast and south central Gulf
tonight. The next cold front will enter the northern Gulf Fri
night into Sat, then stall and lift northward Sat night ahead of
yet another cold front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun.
Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras
will continue to reduce visibility at times over the southwest
and south central Gulf through the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic through
central Cuba into the northwest Caribbean. This is supporting
pulses of fresh to strong easterly winds off Colombia and
Honduras, with seas to 9 ft. Light and variable wind and 2 to 4
ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, north of 17N to
the coast of Cuba. Moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
persist elsewhere. Regional radar shows scattered showers moving
across the Leeward and northern Windward Islands in the trade
wind flow, with isolated showers over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The pattern remains fairly dry elsewhere across the
basin. Analysis from this morning indicated dense smoke from
agricultural fires was still likely impacting visibility over
the Gulf of Honduras.

High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Fri night.
Expect fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night
during the upcoming weekend. Smoke from inland agricultural
fires will continue to reduce visibility off the Yucatan
Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1014 mb
low near 31N72W to 27N80W. The front continues west across the
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted along and north of
the front. To the east, a broad surface ridge extends from 1027
mb high pressure centered near 32N44W to the Straits of Florida.
The tight pressure gradient in the area is supporting fresh to
strong northerly winds between the front and the coast of
northeast Florida. Father east, another frontal system is
analyzed as a cold front from 31N10W to 27N17W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 24N34W. Moderate to fresh trade
wind flow is noted over the tropical Atlantic south of the high
pressure, with 5 to 7 ft seas.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will reach from Bermuda
to south Florida late today, then move east of the area Fri.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front
through tonight. A ridge will dominate the region in the wake of
the front. Expect fresh to occasionally strong southerly winds
north of 27N Sat and Sat night ahead of the next cold front.
Another cold front should reach the area late on Mon.

$$
ERA
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