[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
609 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of the
ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Venice Florida to
26N85W, where it becomes a stationary front extending to
Veracruz Mexico. The upper dynamics supporting this front are
lifting out of the area, and it is weakening and slowing down.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms linger north of the
front over the northeast Gulf, from 27N to 29N east of 85W. Fresh
to strong NE winds with seas to 8 ft are evident across the
central Gulf, within 120 nm west of the front from 23N to 27N.
These winds and seas will diminish through the morning as the
front weakens.

The front will drift little and completely stall through late
today, before dissipating over the southeast and south central
Gulf tonight. The next cold front will enter the northern Gulf Fri
night into Sat, then stall and lift northward Sat night ahead of
yet another cold front approaching the Texas coast by late Sun.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends from the central Atlantic through central Cuba
into the northwest Caribbean. This is supporting pulses of fresh
to strong easterly winds off Colombia and Honduras, with seas 8 to
9 ft. Light and variable wind and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over
the northwest Caribbean, north of 17N to the coast of Cuba.
Generally moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist
elsewhere. Regional radar shows scattered showers moving across
the Leeward and northern Windward Islands in the trade wind flow,
with isolated showers over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The
pattern remains fairly dry elsewhere across the basin however.
Analysis from yesterday indicated dense smoke from agricultural
fires was still likely impacting visibility over the Gulf of
Honduras.

High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to
strong winds near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Expect
fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night during the
upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure centered
near 32N43W to the Straits of Florida. The tight pressure gradient
between the front and higher pressure over Alabama along with
cooler air moving over the warmer Gulf Stream is supporting fresh
to strong northerly winds between the front and the coast of
northeast Florida. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this
area. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing as well off the
northeast Florida coast.

The front will reach from Bermuda to south Florida late today,
then move east of the area Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are expected behind the front through tonight. A ridge will
dominate the region in the wake of the front. Expect fresh to
occasionally strong southerly winds north of 27N Sat and Sat night
ahead of the next cold front. Another cold front should reach the
area late on Mon.

Father east, another cold front is analyzed across the far eastern
Atlantic from the Canary Islands to 25N33W. Moderate to fresh
trade wind flow is observed over the tropical Atlantic south of
the high pressure, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Convergence of these trade
winds is supporting scattered showers north of the ITCZ between
30W and 45W.

$$
Christensen
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