[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Apr 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues to 01N30W, to
02N41W, and 01N45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along
22N98W. A surface trough is about 150 nm to the southeast of the
cold front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 27N northward between 80W and Florida and 90W.

The current cold front will drift southeastward on Wednesday.
The cold front will reach from northern Florida to the southwest
Gulf of Mexico late on Wednesday. The front will extend from
southwestern Florida to the southwest Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday, before becoming stationary and weakening through
Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front through Thursday. A second
cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico
on Friday night and Saturday, then stall and move northward as a
warm front on Saturday night. Smoke from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico and Honduras will continue to reduce the
visibility at times, in the southwest and south central Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly the entire
Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough passes across the island of
Dominica in the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, to the coast of
Venezuela along 66W. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches,
ending at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.56 in Guadeloupe.

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17N northward, in
areas of broken low level clouds.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses
of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia through
Thursday. Fresh to strong winds also are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras at night. The winds and the seas in much of the basin
will diminish through late week, as high pressure to the north
of area weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland
agricultural fires will continue to reduce visibility off the
Yucatan Peninsula, and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N29W to
28N40W. The front becomes dissipating stationary from 28N40W to
22N55W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 22N
northward between 20W and 56W.

An upper level trough has been moving into parts of Africa.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of Africa from
Mauritania to Algeria, and from the Western Sahara to Morocco,
and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.  surface trough extends from a
1001 mb low pressure center that is near 37N12W, to 32N13W, and
across the Canary Islands. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 28N northward from 20W eastward.

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast on Wednesday. The cold front will reach from 31N73W to
South Florida by Thursday morning; from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by Thursday night; stall along 25N on Friday; and
move northward while weakening through Friday night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are expected behind the front on
Thursday. A ridge along 30N on Saturday will start to drift
southward on Saturday night, in advance of another front that
will be approaching the area through early next week.

$$
mt
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