[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 205 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 01N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
07N between 11W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near
31N85W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. A prefrontal surface
trough extends from N Florida near 30N82W to 26N90W to the Bay
of Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered moderate convection is over
NE Mexico from 24N-26N between 96W-99W.

The front and trough are expected to merge Tue, then extend from
the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico on Wed. The cold
front will reach from southwestern Florida to the Bay of
Campeche on Thu, then become stationary and weaken Thu night
into Fri. Another cold front is expected to move over the
northern Gulf Fri night and Sat, then stall by Sat night. Smoke
from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will
continue to reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and SW of Puerto
Rico. A surface trough is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-20N between 88W-90W.
Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Costa Rica and
Panama.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds off Colombia through Wed, pulsing to near gale force
near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds
will pulse each night this week near the Gulf of Honduras.
Winds and seas over much of the basin will diminish mid through
late week as high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke
from inland agricultural fires may limit visibility at times off
the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the region at 30N42W and extends
southwestward to 26N46W to 21N60W. Scattered showers are N of
22N between 40W-52W. Otherwise, a cold front coming
off the coast of Georgia tonight is supporting scattered
showers and tstms N of 29N and W of 73W.

Strong southerly winds will persist offshore of Florida tonight
ahead of the cold front that is expected to stall near the coast
overnight through Tue. Strong thunderstorms are likely to
continue ahead of this front over the next couple days. The
front will begin advancing again by mid-week, with a cold front
expected to reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on Thu. The
front will stall roughly N of 25N Thu night into early Fri, then
lift northward as a warm front while weakening Fri into Fri
night. Another cold front is expected to move into the northern
waters Sat and Sat night.

$$
Formosa
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