[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 01N35W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-
08N between 15W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the Florida
Panhandle to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N89W.  From
there, the boundary transitions to a dissipating stationary
front to 22N93W.  From there, the boundary is a surface trough
to 19N95W.   A second - stronger - cold front extends from
Louisiana to just south of the U.S/Mexico border.  Ahead of the
weak cold front, a squall line extends from the Big Bend area of
Florida to 20N84W with scattered moderate thunderstorms and
isolated strong thunderstorms within 30 nm of the squall line.
Elsewhere scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the two
frontal boundaries.  Winds over the Gulf are moderate breeze or
weaker, except for a NW strong breeze in the SW Gulf offshore of
Veracruz as observed by scatterometer this morning.  Peak seas
are 8 ft in the NE Gulf due to the S wind fetch ahead of the
weak cold front.

The fronts are expected to merge by Tue, then extend from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico on Wed. The front will
become nearly stationary and reach from southwest Florida to
Veracruz on Thu, then dissipate by Fri. Elsewhere, smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Honduras will continue
to reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate N-S pressure gradient driven by a 1035 mb Bermuda
High to the north and a 1012 mb Colombian Low to the south are
generally causing fresh to moderate trades this morning.  The
exceptions are strong breeze easterlies just north of Colombia
and strong breeze southeasterlies in the Gulf of Honduras, as
observed by scatterometer this morning.  Peaks seas north of
Colombia are near 11 ft and over the Gulf of Honduras near 9 ft.
Scattered showers are occurring south of 11N in the SW
Caribbean.  Isolated showers embedded in the trade wind flow are
noted across the Leeward Islands, northern Windward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and just south of Dominican
Republic.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds off Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near gale force
off Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will continue
over the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Basin into Wed.
Winds and seas will diminish slightly mid to late week as high
pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Smoke from inland
agricultural fires may limit visibility at times off the Yucatan
Peninsula and offshore of Belize and Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the region at 32N45W and extends
southwestward to 25N53W.  The boundary transitions into a
stationary front to 21N67W.  Scattered moderate thunderstorms
are present within 60 nm of the front east of 60W, while
scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the front west of 60W.
Scatterometer winds from this morning show a NE strong breeze
north of the front between 45N and 53W.  Peak seas with these
winds are about 10 ft. Farther west, S winds just east of NE
Florida and Georgia reach up to near gale conditions.  Peak seas
are up to 12 ft.

Strong southerly winds will persist offshore of Florida today
ahead of a cold front that is expected to stall near the coast
tonight through Tue. Strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of
this front over the next couple days. The front will begin
advancing again by mid-week, with a cold front expected to reach
from near Bermuda to South Florida on Thu. The front will stall
over the northern waters Thu night, then lift northward as a
warm front while weakening Fri into Fri night. Another cold
front may approach the far NW portion Fri night.

$$
Landsea
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