[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130912
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
512 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 01N35W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-
08N between 15W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 30N91W to 1006 mb
low pressure centered near Poza Rica Mexico near 21N98W. A
stronger cold front is inland over coastal Texas moving southeast.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are active in the coastal
waters of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Frequent
gusts to gale force are possible early this morning in the coastal
waters of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Strong to
near gale force southerly flow is noted over much of the eastern
Gulf, between the low pressure and front in the western Gulf, and
strong high pressure farther east over the Atlantic. Moderate
northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over much of the
western Gulf currently.

The two fronts will merge tonight and reach from the northeast
Gulf to west central Gulf. The merged front will continue to
slowly drift south Tue, reaching from southwest Florida to near
Veracruz Mexico through mid-week before stalling then dissipating
from the Florida keys to the southwest Gulf Thu. Another weak
front may approach the northwest Gulf Fri. Meanwhile, increasing
smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in Honduras
will continue to reduce visibility over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure is centered north of the area over the
western Atlantic. 1010 mb low pressure is centered over northeast
Colombia, and pressure is falling over the western Gulf of Mexico.
The pressure gradient over the Caribbean is tight enough with this
pattern to support strong to near gale force off Colombia, and
strong winds as well off Honduras. Seas in these areas are
reaching 8 to 10 ft. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Caribbean,
and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorm were active off
the coast of western Panama and Costa Rica, but these have been
diminishing lately. Isolated showers embedded in the trade wind
flow are noted across the Leeward Islands, northern Windward Islands,
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Smoke from agricultural fires
onshore may be limiting visibility off Honduras, Belize, and
Mexico.

The high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds off Honduras and Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near
gale force off Colombia to again tonight. Winds and seas will
start to diminish by the middle of the week as the high pressure
weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from 32N45W to very weak 1019 mb low pressure
near 26N52W, then westward toward the southern Bahamas. The
southern portion of this front is slowing and weakening. The front
breaks up a strong ridge extending along roughly 38N. A small
area of thunderstorms are noted near the center of the low
pressure, but otherwise no significant thunderstorm activity is
observed over the western Atlantic. Strong to near gale SE to S
winds are ongoing mainly north of 27N and west of 75W, or north of
the northern Bahamas and off the northeast coast of Florida.
Frequent gusts to gale force are possible this morning over the
coastal waters off northeast Florida. The strong winds are the
result of a tight pressure gradient between the ridge to the north
and a pair of cold fronts approaching from the west.

The fronts will merge, then stall inland tonight. The merged front
will start to move again by mid- week, and reach from near
Bermuda to South Florida by Thu night, allowing winds and seas to
diminish over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds along
the front between 45W and 50W will diminish as well. Beginning on
Fri, the western part of the front will begin to lift back to the
north as a warm front, while the remainder of the front shifts
east of the area. Another cold front is expected to approach the
far northwest forecast waters Fri night.

Farther east over the eastern Atlantic, a persistent surface
trough northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining fresh
to strong NE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas from 22N to 29N between
25W and 30W. Elsewhere, mostly moderate trade winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas persist. No significant thunderstorm activity is noted
except for near the monsoon trough.

$$
Christensen
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