[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W
SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 04N26W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of the
coast of Liberia, Africa and from 0N to 05N between 34W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico waters ahead of a cold
front that will move off the Texas coast tonight. Low level
precipitable water imagery show a plume of moisture across the
NW basin, which along middle level diffluent flow support
scattered showers over the NE Mexico adjacent waters. Latest
surface observations over the NW Gulf show hazy and dense fog
conditions extending to Alabama coastal waters. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are over just about the entire basin, except in
the central Gulf where stronger southerly winds to near gale
force are occuring.

The cold front is expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend
area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as another cold front
moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms may precede this reinforcing front as it moves
over the northern Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to
slowly drift south, reaching from southwest Florida to near
Tampico Mexico through mid-week and from the Florida keys to
near 24N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu. Otherwise,
increasing smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
in Honduras will continue to reduce visibility over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level ridging continue to support dry air
subsidence and stable conditions across most of the basin,
except for the SW Caribbean where the Pacific equatorial trough
and difluence aloft support heavy showers and tstms over
northern Panama adjacent waters.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds off Honduras and Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to
near gale force off Colombia tonight and again Mon night. Winds
and seas will start to diminish by the middle of the week as the
high pressure weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is in the central Atlc waters extending from
30N50W to 24N60W to 22N74W. Middle to upper level diffluence
support scattered showers and isolated tstms ahead of the front
to 44W N of 24N. Surface ridging dominates the remainder Atlc
waters and supports fair weather.

Southerly winds will significantly increase tonight through Mon
off northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to
stall along the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible ahead this next front. This second front will start
to move again by mid-week, reach from near Bermuda to South
Florida by Thu night. Beginning on Fri, the western part of the
front will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front,
while the remainder of the front shifts east of the area. Yet
another cold front is expected to approach the far northwest
forecast waters on Fri night.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net