[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-08N between 13W-
16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front is moving northward through the northwest and north
central Gulf this morning. Buoy data from the central Gulf
confirms strong southerly winds follow the cold front in that
area, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is
noted elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf, with 2 to
4 ft in the far eastern Gulf. Regional radar showed a few showers
off the Texas coast earlier, but otherwise no significant shower
or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time over the Gulf.
Warm, moist air is flowing northward behind the warm front over
slightly cooler water in the northwest and north central Gulf.
Offshore platforms in those areas indicate areas of fog, reducing
the visibility to 2 to 4 nm. Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico is probably lingering over the southwest
Gulf, limiting visibility there to 3 to 5 nm.

For the forecast, the front will move north of the area late this
morning ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas
coast this afternoon. Fog over the northwest and north central
GUlf will lift as drier air associated with the front moves into
the area. The cold front will stall from the Florida Big Bend
area to the southwest Gulf by early Mon, as another cold front
moves off the Texas coast. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
may precede this reinforcing front as it moves over the northern
Gulf. The fronts will merge then continue to slowly drift south,
reaching from southwest Florida to near Tampico Mexico through
mid-week and from the Florida keys to near 24N90W and the eastern
Bay of Campeche Thu. Meanwhile, increasing smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico is likely continue to reduce visibility
over the SW Gulf.

The main forecast issue over the next couple days will continue
be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that will
precede the reinforcing front as it moves over the northern Gulf.
Most of this activity will be over the coastal waters from the
north Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle into Mon.
Marine interests in these areas should monitor forecasts and
warnings from local NWS offices for more information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

1023 mb high pressure is centered north of the area over the
western Atlantic between Bermuda and the northern Bahamas. 1006 mb
low pressure is centered over northern Colombia. The pressure
gradient between these two features is tight enough to support
fresh to strong winds off higher terrain along the coasts of
Colombia and Honduras. Seas in these areas are estimated to be 6
to 9 ft. Moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere
across the Caribbean. Radar displays across the region show a few
showers in the trade wind flow over the Leeward Islands, Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. Otherwise no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted over the water.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
continue to maintain fresh to strong winds off Honduras and
Colombia through late Tue, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia
tonight through late Mon. Winds and seas will start to diminish
by the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts
eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N52W to
the southern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. 1023 mb high
pressure is centered north of the front near 30N70W. Buoy data
indicates fresh SE winds on the western periphery of the high
pressure, from the northern Bahamas to the northeast Florida
coast. Northerly swell with seas of 6 to 9 ft follows within 240
nm of the front, north of 26N. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft in
the open waters east of the Bahamas.

The front is starting to stall and will dissipate through late
today. Southerly winds will increase today through Mon off
northeast Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to stall
along the coast Mon night. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible ahead this next front. This second front will start to
move again by mid-week and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by
late Thu.

Farther east, a trough east of the Canary Islands continues to
disrupt the subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This
pattern is maintaining generally moderate to fresh trade winds
over the tropical eastern Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Higher
seas to 9 ft are estimated to be west of the trough, north of 25N
between 25W-30W.

$$
Christensen
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