[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 06N18W to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from
04N26W to the NE coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the
ITCZ, west of 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends E to W across the Gulf from near Sarasota
Florida to far south Texas near Brownsville. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are along and within 180 nm north of the
front, while scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms have
developed on both sides of the front across south Texas and
inland across NE Mexico. NE to E winds of 15-25 kt and seas 4-6
ft generally prevail N of the front and W of 90W, while N to NE
winds of 10-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft are elsewhere N of the
boundary. To the south, a weak 1009 mb low near 20N94W extends a
sfc trough from the low to 23N90W. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted across the basin S of the front. Smoke from agricultural
fires over southern Mexico can be seen in satellite imagery, and
is likely reducing visibility to 4 to 6 nm over portions of the
southwest Gulf.

The cold front will stall across the central Gulf by late
tonight. Strong south winds and building seas will follow the
western half of this front over the western and central Gulf as
it lifts N of the area as a warm front Sat through Sun, then
covering nearly the entire Gulf at 20-30 kt late Sat night and
Sun. This will occur ahead of a second cold front that will be
approaching the NW Gulf and move off the Texas coast late Sun,
followed by a stronger cold front early Mon. Scattered showers
and strong to possibly severe tstorms may precede this front.
The fronts will merge, then continue to drift south, reaching
from SW Florida to near Tampico Mexico through mid-week.
Meanwhile, smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may
reduce visibility over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak 1014 mb high pressure just N of the Cayman Islands is
helping to maintain gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas across the basin, except for off the coast of South America
and in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh winds are
pulsing and seas are 5-6 ft. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted over water.

Weak high pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of
moderate to fresh winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight and Sat night, with gentle to moderate trade winds
elsewhere. Winds and seas will build early next week and return
to more typical values as high pressure moves into the western
Atlantic and remains north of the basin through early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W...a cold front extends from 31N72W to Palm Beach,
Florida, moving southeastward. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are within 60-90 nm along and ahead of the front. Fresh
to strong winds were seen in the latest scatterometer data north
of 27N between 60W and 65W. These winds are likely diminishing
however as high pressure to the north weakens ahead of the
advancing front.

The cold front will move SE and reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida tonight. Winds will diminish as the front
stalls and weakens along roughly 25N through the central Bahamas
Sun. Southerly winds will increase late Sun and Mon off
northeast Florida ahead of another front expected to move off
the coast Mon night. The second front will stall from near
31N77W to central Florida through mid-week.

Farther east, a sfc trough extends from 27N47W to 22N63W.
Isolated clusters of showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm
of the trough axis. Upper-level divergence east of a weak upper-
level trough is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 26N-32N between 42W-45W. A 1019 mb low near 32.5N24.5W
extends a cold front to 31N24W to 29N30W. Scattered showers are
north of 28N between 19W-28W. Fresh to strong winds will
accompany this low in its southern semicircle as it drifts to
near 31N27W Sat morning. Expect strong N winds off the coast of
Morocco to increase to near-gale tonight and maintain that
strength through the weekend.

$$
Stripling
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