[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM Wed Apr 08 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Senegal,
Africa near 13N16W to 05N21W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates it transitions to the ITCZ axis and continues to 04N30W
to 02N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ west of
41W to inland Brazil. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 44W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, is keeping hold of
the weather pattern across the basin as a rather strong jet-
stream branch rounds the northern periphery of the high pressure
over the southern states. Active weather in the form of scattered
showers and thunderstorms is riding eastward over the southern
states with this jet- stream branch. The high pressure at the
surface remains weak as a 1017 mb high center is analyzed over
the SE Gulf near 25N85W. The related pressure gradient is
allowing for generally light east to southeast winds throughout,
with the exception of the southern part of the central Gulf and
the eastern part of the SW Gulf where gentle to moderate
southeast to south winds are present. The Yucatan Peninsula
thermal trough moved offshore this morning, and as of early this
afternoon it extends from near 23N96W to the coast of Mexico at
18N93W. No weather is occurring with this trough.

Wave heights throughout are in the low range of 2-4 ft. Surface
observations along the coast of Mexico are showing reduced
visibilities to 5 miles. This is due to smoke from agricultural
fires that are occurring in southern Mexico.

The forecast calls for the aforementioned high pressure to be
the dominate feature through the next few days. A cold front is
expected to reach the northern Gulf late Thu night. The front
will become stationary and weaken over the southern Gulf Fri
night. Fresh northeast winds will follow in behind the front.
Southerly winds will increase across the region during the
upcoming weekend. The smoke from the agricultural fires in
southern Mexico is expected to remain for the next several days
leading to reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf and Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure prevails across the basin. In addition, dry
air associated with a mid to upper-level ridge over the western
Caribbean covers just about the entire area along with the
presence of strong northwest to west winds aloft. A band of low-
level clouds with embedded scattered showers is affecting Puerto
Rico and parts of Hispaniola. This moisture is derived from an
as a trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, that lies
along a position from the northern Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico
and to just south of Hispaniola. An afternoon Ascat pass
highlighted a northeast to east to southeast wind shift across
this trough. The gradient between the high pressure and the low
pressure center located over north Colombia, is producing
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean.

The forecast calls for building high pressure over the SW North
Atlantic waters will support fresh to strong winds along the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu
morning. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of
Honduras, possibly attaining strong speeds by this weekend. The
trough that stretches from the northern Leeward Islands to
Puerto Rico and to just south of Hispaniola will lift northward
during the next 24 to 48 hours. Long-period northerly swell is
forecast to move through the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
Thu night through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep-layer broad mid to upper troughing is noted over the
central Atlantic north of about 19N and between 40W-61W. Broad
ridging aloft is to the south of this trough. At the surface, a
trough extends from near 32N44W southwestward to 26N50W and to
the Puerto Rico. Areas of rain along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident east of the trough to a line from
32N25W to 24N36W and to 22N44W. This activity is under a
favorable upper-level diffluent pattern. Isolated showers are
possible elsewhere along and near this trough. Isolated showers
and small isolated thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward
north of about 30N and between 46W-61W supported by a short- wave
trough, that is swinging eastward through the central part of
the mid to upper trough. A 1018 mb high center is analyzed at
25N65W, with a ridge westward to the central Bahamas and Straits
of Florida. Relatively weak high pressure covers just about the
entire area, except in the far eastern Atlantic where a slighter
stronger 1018 mb high center is located west of the Canary
Islands near 27N25W. A ridge extends from this high center
southwestward to near 23N43W.

The forecast calls for the high pressure to be more prevalent
south of 27N tonight and Thu. A trough will move across the
northern waters tonight and Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds
are expected ahead of the trough. A cold front will move
southeastward across the region Thu night through Sat, then
return back to the north as warm front late. Southerly winds
will increase to fresh to strong speeds along with building
wave heights east of Florida Sat night through Sun night,
possibly reaching gale force north of 30N. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms may be possible with this front.

$$
Aguirre
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