[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to
00N37W to the coast of Brazil near 00S47W. An area of strong
convection is noted along the ITCZ extending out to 100 nm on
either side of the boundary. Scattered moderate strong tstorms
are seen from 00N to 03N between 43W to 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure is centered near the Florida Keys with a surface
trough which extends into the NE Gulf to 29N85W. No significant
Activity is seen in the Gulf with this trough. Over the Bay of
Campeche, a second trough is seen from 23N91W to 18N93W. Early
ASCAT data indicates moderate to locally fresh wind east of the
trough and lighter winds in the eastern Gulf. Early altimeter pass
indicated seas are running 3-6 ft within these fresh winds, while
elsewhere seas remain 3 ft or less.

High pressure will build over the NE Gulf today and move southward
across the eastern Gulf through Wed night. A cold front will
approach the northern Gulf Coast Thu and Thu night, move across
the northern Gulf waters Fri, then stall and weaken Fri night into
Sat. Expect strengthening southerly winds across the Gulf Sat night
as low pressure deepens over the SE United States. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over
the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are ongoing near the coast of Colombia and
over the Gulf of Venezuela between the Colombian low and a high
pressure ridge building over the SW N Atlantic. Altimeter pass
confirmed seas peaking from 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla
within the strongest winds. Fresh easterly winds are noted in the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere
over the southern Caribbean, while light to moderate trades prevail
across the rest of the basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level
ridge over the NW Caribbean continues to suppress any convective
activity over the basin.

Building high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters
will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu. Fresh winds will pulse
each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly reaching strong
speeds by this weekend. A trough will linger in the vicinity of
the Leeward Islands through Wed while lifting northward. Long-
period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of
the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Another round of northerly
swell will impact these waters late Thu night into this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low centered over the FL
Keys. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the Straits of
FL and NW Bahamas. Further east, a surface trough extends from
30N30W to 24N41W. Moderate to locally SW fresh winds north of 24N
to 30N between 24W-41W. Isolated showers persist near the trough.
A 1021 mb high pressure remains across the eastern Atlantic near
the Canary Islands. In the western Atlantic, High pressure builds
anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N75W. Northerly swell remains
over much of the central Atlantic water, with 8-12 ft seas found
N of 25N.

High pressure offshore of Florida will track SE through Wed, then
maintain a ridge across the southern waters through late week. A
trough will cross the northern waters Wed night and Thu. A cold
front is expected to move SE across the SW N Atlantic waters late
Thu night through Sat night.

$$
MMT
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