[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 606 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Sierra Leone near
06N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-07N between
10W-18W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ
and extends out to 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed from the SW Gulf near 20N97W to
26N92W across the eastern Gulf to southern Florida. Scatterometer
data and recent buoy observations shows moderate to fresh easterly
winds north of the front over the northern Gulf, generally between
26N and 28N. Moderate SE winds are noted in the latest ASCAT
East of the trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail across much of
the basin, except for moderate to locally fresh winds near the
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a locally influenced trough.

A stationary front extending from south Florida westward across
the central Gulf along 25N-26N will linger today, then weaken and
lift northward tonight. A ridge will build across the Gulf Tue and
persist through mid-week. A cold front is expected to drop southward
and cross the northern Gulf late Thu night and Fri, then stall and
weaken over the northern or central waters Fri night. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over
the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak high pressure ridge over the SW N Atlantic is producing a
pressure gradient that supports fresh easterly winds near the
coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Seas likely peak around 8-10 ft
offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest winds. Fresh winds
are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and over the southern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the
basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean
continues to limit any convective activity over the basin.

High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through mid-week,
which will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and
over the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the
Gulf of Honduras. A weakening stationary front or trough will linger in
the vicinity of the Leeward Islands into Tue. Long-period northerly swell
will continue affecting the waters east of the Leeward Islands through Tue,
then subside by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scatterometer data showed fresh southeasterly winds to the north of
what used to be a stationary front extending across the central Atlantic,
now a surface trough is analyzed from 30N35W to the Lesser Antilles near
18N61W. Farther west, a tail end of a cold front is analyzed over the
central Atlantic from 31N41W to 28N43W with scattered showers and tstorms
60 nm SE of the front. At this time, strong winds and seas 12 ft or greater
are generally found north of 26N between 45W and 55W. In the western Atlantic,
a nearly stationary front extends across south Florida to the NW Bahamas with
an area of scattered showers and tstorms across the Florida Straits and NW Bahamas.
ASCAT indicates moderate easterly winds north of the boundary and west of 76W.
Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high pressure well depicted by the ASCAT this morning is
centered near 26N22W or about 220 nm SW of the Canary Islands.

A nearly stationary front extending across south Florida to the NW
Bahamas will weaken tonight into early Tue. Northerly swell generated
by a complex low pressure system over the central Atlantic will produce
large seas across the forecast waters through tonight. Seas will subside
Tue through mid-week as high pressure passes SE across the northern waters.
A ridge will persist over the southern waters through Fri. A cold front is
expected to move off the SE U.S. coast and across the northern waters Thu
night through Fri night.

4575
MTorres
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