[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends continues from 06N17W to 00N32W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 200 nm N and 190 nm S of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low is located in the west-central Gulf near 25N93W
with a stationary front extending eastward to the SW Florida coast
near 26N81W. A stationary front also extends south of the low to
the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Showers are seen along the E-W
oriented stationary front and into South Florida. Low clouds cover
the northern half of the Gulf. The latest scatterometer data
depicts fresh ENE winds north of the E-W oriented stationary front
and low. Light to gentle winds are south of the front. Fresh
winds are along the Yucatan. Seas range from 2 to 6 ft. Low
visibility due to smoke is possible across the the Bay of
Campeche.

The stationary front will persist overnight, then lift northward
and dissipate on Mon. Fresh easterly winds north of the front will
diminish overnight. A western Atlantic high pressure ridge will
prevail across the eastern and central Gulf through mid-week. A
cold front may move southward over the northern Gulf late Thu
night through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging is centered over Central America. Aside from
scattered showers over Puerto Rico, the rest of the Caribbean
remains dry. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds
north of Colombia and Venezuela with fresh winds extending into
the central and southeast Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are
also noted in the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate trades persist
across the remainder of the basin. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft, with
9 ft seas north of Colombia.

High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through
mid-week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail along the coast of
Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela this week. Fresh winds
will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras. A weakening
stationary front or trough will linger in the vicinity of the
Leeward Islands over the next couple of days. Long-period
northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the
Leeward Islands through Tue, then subside by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends across the central Atlantic
from 31N35W to 25N49W to the eastern Hispaniola coast near 19N68W.
A trough extends from 32N51W to 25N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 22N-31N between 30W-53W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong cyclonic winds N of 25N
between 44W-61W. Seas are up to 12 ft in this area. Surface
ridging extends across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb
high near 25N28W.

Northerly swell generated by a deep low pressure system centered
north of the area over the central Atlantic will produce large
seas across the forecast waters through Mon night. Seas will
subside Tue through mid-week as high pressure moves SE across the
northern waters. A high pressure ridge will persist across the
central waters through mid-week. A cold front is expected to move
off the SE U.S. coast and into the northern waters Fri and Fri
night.

$$
AReinhart
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