[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Atlantic Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds are occurring
north of 30N roughly between 58W and 62W, south of a deep low
pressure system centered E-NE of Bermuda. Associated wave heights
are generally running 13-17 ft. As the low pressure system
weakens and moves eastward, winds will diminish below gale force
by 05/1200 UTC.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 01N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is ongoing
across the north-central Gulf this morning in association with a
low pressure system near 27N92W, and its associated stationary
front. The latest surface observations indicate fresh to strong NE
to E winds are occurring across the offshore waters off Texas and
Louisiana behind the front. Seas are likely approaching 8-9 ft
off the coast of southern Texas within this enhanced E-NE flow.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the
basin, except for some locally fresh winds north of the Yucatan
Peninsula in association with a surface trough moving offshore.
Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may be causing
minor limitations to visibility over the SW Gulf.

A compact low pressure system over the north-central Gulf will
move eastward and weaken today while pulling a slow-moving cold
front into the central Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds behind
the front will diminish as the front stalls over the central Gulf
tonight into Mon, then dissipates by Mon night. High pressure will
build over the SW N Atlantic early this week, with a ridge to
extend westward across the eastern Gulf through mid-week. Another
cold front may move into the northern Gulf late Thu night.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each evening
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Limited shower activity is noted in Caribbean radar imagery this
morning as a mid-level ridge prevails over the NW Caribbean. The
pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the Bahamas and
the Colombian low is driving fresh to strong winds near the coast
of Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds are found in
the Gulf of Honduras, while fresh winds persist in the Windward
Passage. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades persist across the
rest of the basin.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle
of this week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse each night over the
Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds with locally higher seas
will prevail along the coast of Colombia through the middle of
this week. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the
waters east of the Leeward Islands through Mon night, then
subside through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the gale
warning currently in effect over the Atlantic high seas.

A cold front remains draped across the central Atlantic from
31N39W to 23N54W to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.
Some fresh to strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the front
north of 26N. Meanwhile, a large area of fresh to strong westerly
winds is located well behind the front, north of 26N between 50W
and 70W. Weak high pressure is analyzed near the NW Bahamas, and
a surface high pressure ridge extends across the eastern Atlantic.

Deep low pressure E-NE of Bermuda will continue moving eastward
today, allowing winds to diminish over the NE portion of the
offshore waters. Northerly swell generated by this low will
produce very large seas across the waters east and northeast of
the Bahamas through Mon night. A slow-moving cold front over the
central Atlantic will stall later today and dissipate tonight into
early Mon. High pressure will move SE across the northern
offshore waters late Mon through Tue night, then maintain a ridge
across the central waters through mid-week. Looking ahead, a cold
front may move off the SE U.S. coast late Thu night.

$$
B Reinhart
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