[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are forecast over a northwest
Atlantic this afternoon and continue until early Sunday. A cold front,
associated with a deep and complex low pressure system north of the
area, will bring gale-force west to northwest winds to the waters north
of 30N and between 61W and 66W. Wave height in this area will range
between 15-18 ft. These conditions will shift east of the forecast waters
by Sun morning following the low/front. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 05N17W, then transitions to the ITCZ from that point
to 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 260 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front currently extends along the Texas coastline from
30N94W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
vicinity of the front, mainly north of 25N and west of 91W. To
the south, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche,
extending from 23N94W to 19N95W. Surface observations depict light
to gentle easterly winds across most of the basin except north
of the front, where gentle to moderate northwest winds will prevail.
Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may
be causing minor limitations to visibility over the SW Gulf.

The weak ridge over the eastern Gulf will shift eastward
through tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to move across
the NW Gulf today. The front will reach from the Florida
Panhandle to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W tonight. Fresh to
strong winds are expected in the wake of the front. Gusty winds
to minimal gale force winds may occur. The front will become
stationary before it lifts back north as a warm front Sun. High
pressure from off the Carolina coast will slide southward early
next week setting up an east to west ridge across the area. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula through the period due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is noted across the basin under
very dry air aloft as indicated by the strong subsidence signal in
water vapor imagery. The exception of the SE part of the basin
including the coast of South America, where scattered to broken
low clouds with possible isolated showers are present. Overnight
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh east winds south of 14N
and between 61W-78W, and a small area of strong northeast to east
winds along and near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate east winds elsewhere.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through
the middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the
western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night
beginning tonight over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along
the coast of Colombia. Long-period northerly swell moving through
the waters around the Leeward Islands will subside early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale
warning currently in effect for the northwest Atlantic.

A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic 31N46W to 20N66W
to 20N74W. Scattered showers are noted along the front, with the highest
concentration north of 22N. High pressure prevails west of the front,
anchored by a 1015 mb high near 26N78W. High pressure also prevails east
of the front, centered near 23N37W. Overnight scatterometer data depicted
an extensive area of fresh to strong west to northwest winds north of 27N
and west of the front to 74W. Strong west winds are within 240 nm east of
the cold front. In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N13W to near 21N20W. Lack of atmospheric forcing due to dry sinking air
aloft as seen in water vapor imagery, and along with dust in this area of
the Atlantic is suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity with this front.

The front over the central Atlantic will slowly move eastward
to east of the Leeward Islands by Mon morning. Gale conditions
are expected near 30N64W from this afternoon till early Sun as a
deep low pressure system located N of area drops southeastward
passing just east of Bermuda Sun morning. North swell generated by
the low will produce very large seas across the waters east and
northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. High pressure will
shift southward over the north-central waters Mon night into Tue.

5294

ERA
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