[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 04N18W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30N to 01N40W and to south of
the equator to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm north
of the ITCZ between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 04N between 30W-37W, and also north of the ITCZ
within 30 nm of a line from 04N44W to 04N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered over Georgia and the NE Gulf of
Mexico is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern
Gulf. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the northwest
Gulf, between the high pressure over Georgia and lower pressure
over northern Mexico. Latest and current satellite and radar
imagery show isolated showers over portions of the northern Gulf,
mainly north of 26N and west of about 85W.

High pressure ridging over the NE Gulf will allow for moderate SE
winds to exist over the basin through Sat night. A cold front is
expected to just move offshore the Texas coast tonight into Sat,
followed by moderate to fresh northeast winds on Sat. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible with this front. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula through the period as a thermal trough moves NW from
the Peninsula over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba
near 20N74W to 20N77W, then to near 21N83W. The front has
disrupted the sub-tropical ridge north of the area, resulting in
lighter than usual trade wind flow across the basin. A few showers
are possible over the waters between the front and Jamaica. The
latest overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to locally
fresh winds in the southeastern and south-central Caribbean. Fresh
winds are seen in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are
noted elsewhere over the basin. Fairly dry conditions persist
across the basin under moderate subsidence aloft as depicted in
water vapor imagery. Regional radar imagery continues to reveal
isolated showers in the northern Windward Islands, and south of
Cuba near the stalled frontal boundary.

The front is likely to dissipate by late this afternoon. Light to
moderate winds will gradually increase this weekend as high
pressure begins to rebuild over the western Atlantic. Fresh
winds are likely to begin pulsing each night through the period
beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially
along the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds are likely to pulse each
night beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and
especially along the coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast
to expand in coverage along the coast of Colombia at night
starting on Sun and through Wed. Wave heights with these winds
will reach to about 11 ft on Tue and into Wed.

North swell is forecast to affect the northeastern Caribbean
passages late today and through at least Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front associated to an intense and broad low pressure
system well north of the discussion area extends to 32N49W, then
to 25N60W and to just southeast of the southeastern Bahamas and
to the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N74W. Broken to overcast mostly
low clouds with possible isolated showers are noted along and
within 60 nm northwest of the front. Fresh to strong winds are
evident in overnight scatterometer data north of 28N between 48W-
77W. A warm front is analyzed from near 32N45W to 29N43W. The
combination of this front with a swath of upper-level moisture
advecting northeastward over it leading to small patches of rain
along with isolated showers north of 30N and between 41W- 50W.
Large N swell is moving through the area north of 24N between 49W-
78W. Overnight altimeter satellite data detected wave heights
peaking at 11 ft east of northeastern Florida along 77W and north
of 28N.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly
move eastward and reach from near 22N57W to the Leeward Islands
near 18N62W by Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible near
31N65W Sat evening as intense low pressure centered SE of New
England pivots southeastward toward Bermuda. North swell generated
by the low will produce very large wave heights across the waters
east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will
gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays.

Over the far eastern Atlantic a cold front extends from near
32N21W to 22N35W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are near and
within 150 nm ahead of the front, north of 28N. The earlier
observed areas of rain and scattered moderate convective activity
observed along and east of this have since shifted east-northeast
to north of 27N and between 10W-18W. Overnight altimeter
satellite data showed wave heights in the range of 8-10 ft just
ahead of this front and north of 27N. A weak 1018 mb high center
is analyzed at 22N47W. This feature maintains a relatively weak
pressure over this part of the Atlantic, with its associated weak
gradient allowing for generally light to gentle winds from the
vicinity of the ITCZ northward to 23N. The 1018 mb high center is
forecast to retreat eastward through the weekend in response to
the approaching central Atlantic cold front described above.

$$
Aguirre
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