[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N32W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 01N-05N between 39W-46W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered over Georgia and the NE Gulf of
Mexico is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the northwest Gulf,
between the high pressure over Georgia and lower pressure over
northern Mexico. Satellite and radar imagery show scattered
showers over portions of the northern Gulf, mainly north of 26N
and west of 86W.

High pressure ridging over the NE Gulf will allow for moderate SE winds
to exist over the basin through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse each evening north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through the
period as a thermal trough moves NW from the Peninsula over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 03/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the E tip of Cuba
near 20N74W to 20N77W. The front continues as stationary from
20N77W to 20N81W, dissipating to 21N84W. The front has disrupted
the subtropical ridge north of the area, resulting in lighter
than usual  trade wind flow across the basin. The latest ASCAT
pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds in the SE and south-
central Caribbean. Fresh winds are seen in the Gulf of Honduras.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the basin. Fairly
dry conditions persist across the basin. Regional radar shows
isolated showers in the northern Windward Islands, and south of
Cuba near the stalled frontal boundary.

The front will dissipate by this afternoon. Light to moderate
winds will gradually increase this weekend as high pressure begins
to rebuild over the western Atlantic. Fresh winds are likely to
pulse each night beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras
and especially along the coast of Colombia. N swell will affect
the NE Caribbean passages late today through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N51W to 26N60W to the E tip of Cuba
near 20N74W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the front. Fresh to strong winds are evident in scatterometer
data north of 28N between 48W-77W. A warm front from 32N48W to
31N47W is inducing scattered showers north of 28N between
40W-50W. Large N swell is moving through the area north of 24N
between 50W-77W.

For the forecast, the cold front that extends from 26N60W to
the eastern tip of Cuba will move slowly E to extend from
near 22N57W to the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Sun morning.
Gale conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening as intense
low pressure centered SE of New England pivots southeastward
toward Bermuda. North swell generated by the low will produce
very large seas across the waters east and northeast of the
Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will gradually subside through
early next week as the swell decays.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N23W to 24N33W.
Strong SW winds are near and within 150 nm ahead of the front,
north of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N
between 13W-21W. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicate
seas are 8 to 12 ft north of 25N. Weak 1018 mb high pressure
is centered farther south near 20N50W. This is maintaining
mostly light to gentle winds from 14N-23N between 25W-80W.

$$
Hagen
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