[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2322 UTC Thu Apr 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale center well north off New England will move southeast
through Fri, reaching to just northeast of Bermuda by late Sat,
before continuing due east through early next week. Winds may
reach minimal gale force with seas building to 20 ft near 30N
between 45W and 60W from Sat night through Mon morning as the low
pressure moves eastward and gets absorbed into a larger low
pressure area farther north. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N32W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01S-03N between 13W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered over Georgia is maintaining gentle to
moderate winds across much of the eastern Gulf today, where
recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy observations showed
10 to 15 kt. Buoys also indicated seas were 2 to 4 ft. Farther
west, the scatterometer, buoy and platform data showed moderate
to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf, between the high
pressure over Georgia and lower pressure over northern Mexico and
west Texas. Seas over the northwest Gulf are 3 to 5 ft. Farther
south light to gentle SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident
over the southwest Gulf. No significant showers or thunderstorms
are evident over the Gulf at this time. Visibility remains good
with only minor smoke noted in the southwest Gulf due to
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the high pressure over Georgia will continue to promote
moderate SE winds over most the basin through Sat night. Fresh to
occasionally strong SE return flow will persist in the northwest
Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse each evening N and W
of the Yucatan Peninsula as a thermal trough moves NW from the
Peninsula over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N78W to
the Yucatan Channel. The front has disrupted the subtropical
ridge north of the area, resulting in lighter than usual winds
trade wind flow across the basin. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicated mainly moderate winds off the coast of
northeast Colombia, as well as parts of the southeast Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the basin. Seas
are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft in the south central and southeast
Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Fairly dry conditions persist
across the basin. Regional radar shows only isolated showers in
the northern Windward Islands, and south of Cuba near the stalled
frontal boundary.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate through Sat. Generally
light to moderate winds will gradually increase this weekend as
high pressure begins to rebuild over the western Atlantic. Fresh
winds are likely to begin pulsing each night starting Sat night
over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale warning has been issued for the Atlantic. See above.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to the coast of Cuba near
22N77W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are evident in
scatterometer data along and just ahead of the front east of
65W. Fresh NW winds are noted north of 27N between 65W and 70W,
where a concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed seas of 10 to
12 ft. These seas are due to NW swell moving into the area.
Generally gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere west of 55W.

For the forecast, the front will slowly shift east to eventually
extend from 22N57W to the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Sun
morning. Gale conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening as
the intense low pressure centered southeast of New England
pivots southeast toward Bermuda. N swell generated by the low
will produce very large seas across the region through the
weekend, then seas will gradually subside as the swell decay
early next week.

Farther east, another deep low is centered north of the area,
west of the Azores. An associated cold front is moving eastward
north of 25N, followed by fresh to strong westerly winds. Various
altimeter satellite passes indicated seas are 8 to 12 ft in north
of 25N. Weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered farther south near
21N78W. This is maintaining mostly light to gentle winds across
the tropical Atlantic waters, except for slight strong winds
noted farther south near the mouth of the Amazon River off
Brazil.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net