[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1000 mb low pressure just offshore of South Carolina extends a
cold front from near 33N78W to near Jacksonville Florida to Cedar
Key Florida. Gale force SW winds will develop ahead of the front
very soon, early this morning, north of 29N and east of 76W, and
progress E to 67W through the morning hours as the front orients
from E of Bermuda into the SE Bahamas by tonight. Some SW gales
may linger ahead of the front into early Thu as far E as 59W.
Behind the cold front, NW gales will develop N of 29N between 62W
and 75W this afternoon into early Thu. Another round of NW gales
may surge into the area Fri through Fri night N of 29N between 62W
and 68W. Seas will build up to 18 ft over the gale area starting
this morning and continuing into at least Fri. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near
02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
03S-06N between 27W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Cedar Key Florida
near 29N83W to 26N90W to NE Mexico near 24N98W. A line of moderate
showers with embedded isolated tstorms is over central Florida
ahead of the front and extends into the eastern Gulf. Isolated
showers are elsewhere along the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows
fresh to strong N winds in the northern Gulf of Mexico behind the
front.

The cold front will race SE and clear the Gulf by this afternoon.
Strong NW winds and seas of up to 9 ft will follow the front over
the NE Gulf through midday today. Winds and seas will diminish
across much of the basin late today, and remain relatively
tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds over
the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging covers the eastern half of the Caribbean. Dry
air covers most of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh
trades in the south-central Caribbean, with strong winds near the
coast of Colombia. Gentle winds cover much of the remainder of the
basin.

As high pressure over the W Atlantic weakens and moves SE, winds
and seas in the Caribbean will remain fairly tranquil through the
week. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan Channel this
evening, then stall along 20N Thu and dissipate by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

Scattered thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters to the east of
northern Florida are associated with a surface trough that is
located ahead of the cold front discussed in the Special Features
section. A complex system of three lows are situated from 35N-40N
between 38W-58W. A warm front extends from the low just off the
South Carolina coast near 34N78W to 31N67W. A central Atlantic
cold front extends from 32N51W to 29N60W to 31N67W. The latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds on both sides of the this
front between 51W-61W. A warm front extends from 32N49N to 30N48W,
and transitions to a dissipating cold front to 27N40W to 28N33W.
An upper-level low north of the area is enhancing scattered
moderate convection north of 28N between 41W-50W. Farther east,
yet another cold front enters the area near 32N29N and extends to
29N30W to 18N43W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N
between 25W-31W. A 1015 mb high is centered north of the Virgin
Islands near 21N64W.

Intensifying low pressure off the South Carolina coast with a
strong trailing cold front moving east of northern Florida this
morning will race E and be E of Bermuda and the Bahamas by
tonight. The front will then be just N of Puerto Rico by Fri.
Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop early this morning by
01/0600 UTC north of 29N and E of 76W, then expand E through late
tonight. NW gales will also develop behind the front over the
same area this afternoon through early Thu.

$$
Hagen
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