[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 19.4N 42.9W at 27/1500 UTC or
1390 nm SW of the Azores moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120
kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 18N-
21N between 41W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 14N-24N between 37W-46W. A turn toward the north is expected
tonight or on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-
northeast on Sunday. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
are possible today, and slow weakening is forecast to begin by
the weekend. Please read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Tropical Depression Karen is centered near 28.8N 59.6W at
27/1500 UTC or 340 nm SE of Bermuda moving ENE at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is near the center from 27N-30N between
58W-61W. Karen should stall overnight and begin moving westward
on Saturday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is
expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough
of low pressure by tonight. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern
Mexico...

Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall
is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas
from western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to
southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead
to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain and areas near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated
with the wave. A large area of dry air and dust is E of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N24W. The ITCZ is from 07N24W to 06N28W.
The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave at 06N31W and ends near
08N38W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered showers are within 240 nm of the axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N96W to
19N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis.
More scattered showers are along the coast of Texas N of 27N
between 94W-96W. Surface ridging from the Atlantic extends over
Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, strong
subsidence is over the entire Gulf.

A trough over the western Gulf will continue to move slowly
westward, then reach the northeast coast of Mexico on Sat. High
pressure will prevail elsewhere across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and
southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section
above for more details.

A surface trough extends from SE Cuba westward to 17N82W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of the trough
and 180 nm to the south of the trough affecting the coast of
Nicaragua and Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is present
in the SW Caribbean Sea mainly due to the proximity of the Pacific
monsoon trough in the area, from 08N-12N between 76W-82W. Light
and gentle winds prevail between 69W-83W and moderate to fresh
winds in the Eastern and NW Caribbean.

Trade winds will return to the Caribbean today, and will continue
through Wed, with winds increasing over much of the central and
western Caribbean through early next week. Swells generated from
Lorenzo will propagate into the tropical N Atlc and eastern
Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen.

A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N72W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 21N-24N
between 74W-79W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of T.D. Karen from 20N-25N between 58W-68W. A 1025
mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N28W.

Tropical Depression Karen near 28.8N 59.6W 1006 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving ENE at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Karen will become a remnant low and move to 29.0N 59.1W this
evening, 29.1N 59.2W Sat morning, 29.3N 60.3W Sat evening, 29.3N
62.1W Sun morning, then dissipate Monday. High pressure building
N of the area will slowly increase winds and seas across the area
this weekend into early next week.

$$
Formosa
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