[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 17.6N 41.5W at 27/0300 UTC or
1660 nm SW of the Azores moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 939 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125
kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is within 180 nm in the S semicircle and 250 nm N semicircle.
A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn
to the northeast on Sunday. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
strength are possible through Friday night. A slow weakening
trend is expected over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 27.8N 62.1W at 26/0300 UTC
or 350 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 180 nm in the SE quad, 200 nm in the NE quad and 120 nm
in the NW quad of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 20N64W to 30N58W. Karen is
expected to become nearly stationary by Friday night or early
Saturday. It should then begin to move westward over the weekend.
Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday.
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern
Mexico...

Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall
is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas
from western Nicaragua, southern Honduras, southern Guatemala, to
southern Mexico, including in the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible that the heavy rains may lead
to flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain and areas near the Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is associated
with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 10N14W to 4N26W. The ITCZ begins near 04N27W to 04N33W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered showers are along the vicinity of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb low is centered over NE Yucatan Peninsula near 17N90W.
A surface trough extends northwestward from the low to the NW Gulf
of Mexico near 27N95W. This is resulting in scattered moderate
isolated strong convection in the Bay of Campeche from 18N92W to
21N90W. A 1013 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N86W.
5-10 kt surface winds are noted throughout the Gulf. No
significant deep convection is present over the Gulf this evening.

A trough over the western Gulf will continue to move slowly
westward before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat.
Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and
southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section
above for more details.

A surface trough extends from SE Cuba westward to 17N81W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 140 nm south of the trough.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras associated to the 1006 mb low pressure centered over the
Yucatan Peninsula near 17N92W. Light and gentle winds prevail
between 69W- 83W and moderate to fresh winds in the Eastern and NW
Caribbean.

Tradewinds will return to the Caribbean Friday through the
remainder of the forecast period with winds increasing over much
of the central and western Caribbean through early next week.
Swells generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate through the
tropical N Atlc and eastern Caribbean passages through this
weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen.

A 1015 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N71W. A
surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas near 21N72W to E Cuba.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the
trough from the Windward Passage to the Bahamas, from 19N73W to
22N74W.

Tropical Storm Karen will move to 28.3N 61.0W Fri morning, weaken
to a tropical depression near 28.5N 60.0W Fri evening, become a
remnant low and move to 28.5N 60.5W Sat morning, 28.3N 61.5W Sat
evening, and 28.0N 64.5W Sun evening. Karen will dissipate Mon.
High pressure building N of the area will bring an increase in
winds and seas by the end of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Torres
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