[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
212 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Karen is centered near 16.3N 65.7W at 24/0600
UTC, or about 115 nm SSW of St. Croix, moving NNW at 7 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast through Wednesday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic
tonight and Wednesday. Slow strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Karen could become a tropical storm again later
today. Karen is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 150 nm of the center in the southern
semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is also well to the
east, from 12N-17N between 58W-60W, including over portions of the
Lesser Antilles. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 29.5N 68.4W at 24/0600 UTC,
or about 290 nm SW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 6 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 993 mb, and maximum sustained winds are near
50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A turn to the northeast is expected
today, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by early Wednesday. Further weakening is forecast during
the next few days. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Bermuda, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday.
Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection extends outward
from the center to 250 nm NE quad, and 150 nm in the NW quad.
Elsewhere in the E semicircle, scattered moderate convection
extends out to 300 nm from the center. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 11.6N 26.7W at 24/0300
UTC, or about 270 nm SW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands,
moving W at 13 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb, and
maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A
west to west-northwest motion is expected for the next few days.
Strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Lorenzo is
expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center Ne
quad, 210 nm SE quad and 340 nm SW quad. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere within 250 nm SE quad. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 24N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the wave axis from 05N-19N between 36W-41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 16N16W
to 15N20W. The monsoon trough resumes west of T.S. Lorenzo near
09N30W to 06N48W. The ITCZ extends from 06N48W to 06N57W.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Water vapor imagery shows a large upper-level low that covers the
western Gulf of Mexico, with much drier air north of a line from
Key West Florida to 24N84W to 30N86W. Surface high pressure over
the southeast U.S. extends ridging over the NE Gulf of Mexico,
where fair weather prevails. A surface trough is from 24N87W to
18N88W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen
over the SE Gulf of Mexico south of 25N and east of 89W to western
Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Over the SW Gulf, scattered showers
and tstorms cover the western Gulf west of 93W, enhanced by the
upper-low. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds over
the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh NE to E winds and seas to near 8 ft will continue through
the Florida Straits to offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through
tonight. Conditions will gradually improve as the pressure
gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure
associated with a trough across the Straits weakens. New high
pressure will develop along the northern Gulf tonight, then will
slowly lift N by the end of the week. Otherwise, weak low pressure
along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, producing
showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
This low is forecast to move slowly westward across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico over the next several days, and there is a low
chance of tropical development of this low through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for info on Tropical Depression Karen, currently
located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Scattered tstorms over the Greater Antilles and Jamaica will be
slow to wane as the evening progresses due to enhanced moisture
over the area. Farther south, scattered moderate convection is
over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, and the waters south of 12N
between 72W-79W. Similar convection is seen over Panama and Costa
Rica, due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT
pass shows light to gentle winds across the western two-thirds of
the basin, west of 69W.

A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and
low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean
through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by
the end of the week. A tropical wave will reach the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for more info on Tropical Storm Jerry, Tropical
Depression Karen, Tropical Storm Lorenzo and the tropical wave
over the basin.

Water vapor imagery shows dry air is present west of 70W in the
western Atlantic. Farther E, a stationary front weakens as it
enters the forecast area from 31N46W to 28N48W. An upper-level
trough axis extends from 25N50W to beyond 32N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 27N-31N between 41W-43W. Surface high
pressure ridging prevails over the NE Atlantic from a 1025 mb high
centered 32N22W.

Karen will strengthen to a tropical storm as it approaches Puerto
Rico near 17.5N 66.2W Tue morning, move to 19.6N 66.2W Tue
evening, then near 22.0N 65.8W Wed morning, 23.9N 65.2W Wed
evening, and 26.8N 64.1W Thu evening. Karen will change little in
intensity as it moves to the N to near 28.0N 64.0W late Fri, and
will shift W to near 28.0N 66.5W late Sat.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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