[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 12.7N 62.3W at 22/1800 UTC
or 50 nm N of Grenada moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from
05N-14N between 56W-68W. On the forecast track, Karen will move
away from the Windward Islands later today, then across the
eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is
expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Little
change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 25.7N 66.6W at 22/1500 UTC
or 410 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection extends outward
from the center 150 nm in the NE quad, 180 nm SE quad, 75 nm SW
quad and 60 nm NW quad. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 22N-28N between 61W-68W. On the forecast track, the center
of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Some
slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. See
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave along 18W extends from 19N to a 1008 mb low near
11N18W to 03N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Satellite images show that
thunderstorm activity is quickly becoming better organized in
association with the low. Scattered to numerous moderate with
embedded isolated strong convection is from 05N-16N between 15W-
24W. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form
later today or tonight while it moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on
Monday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 34W from 21N southward
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict this wave well.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 12N-17N between
28W-36W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Senegal near
13N17W to a 1008 mb low near 11N18W to 10N31W to 07N38W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N38W to 09N50W to 09N55W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-09N between 24W-28W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen near and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ
between 42W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near the coast of North
Carolina. This feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow
across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer data
depicts strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico east
of 88W from 23N-26N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail farther
south and west. A stationary front over the western Atlantic
passes through the Bahamas near 25N77W to the Florida Straits near
24N84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-25N between
80W-88W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the northern
Florida Peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The upper-trough
is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms from 22N-26.5N between
88W-93.5W.

High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
will dominate the Gulf waters through the remainder of the
weekend. The pressure gradient between the high and the stationary
front will maintain fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8
to 10 ft through tonight. New high pressure will develop across
the northern Gulf by Mon and will linger through the week, causing
the pressure gradient to weaken and marine conditions to improve.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above for information on Tropical Storm Karen in the SE
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from E Cuba near 21N75W to
18N80W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of the
trough. An E-W stationary front is over the Florida Straits.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are over the NW Caribbean
north of 20N. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen in the
SW Caribbean south of 11N and west of 79W due to the influence of
the East Pacific monsoon trough. Latest scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin, except
near Tropical Storm Karen.

Tropical Storm Karen is forecast reach near 14N64W Mon morning,
near 17N66W Tue morning, near 21N66W Wed morning, and near 23N65W
Thu morning. Meanwhile, large northerly swell will continue to
move through the regional Atlc waters and pass through the NE
Caribbean passages through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry.

A cold front extends from 32N49W to 30N55W, then continues as a
stationary front to 28N68W to Eleuthera Bahamas near 25N76W to the
Florida Straits near 24N84W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the front to the east of 65W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front between 74W-84W, including
over portions of the NW Bahamas. Strong NE winds are along and
within 210 nm N of the front between 63W-83W, with near gales N of
the front between 65W-70W. Farther E, an upper-level low near
20N49W is elongated SW-NE. Scattered showers are from 24N-27N
between 45W-49W. A cold front over the NE Atlantic extends from
32N10W to 30N14W, then continues as a stationary front to 29N22W
to 27N27W, then as a dissipating stationary front to 25N35W. No
significant convection is seen with the front.

Tropical Storm Jerry is forecast to reach near 31N68W Tue morning
before accelerating to the NE and passing just W of Bermuda early
Tue night. Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to move across eastern
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tue, then reach near 23N65W
Wed morning.

$$
Hagen
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