[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 21.4N 64.0W at 21/0900 UTC
or 660 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 18N-24N between 60W-66W.  On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W S of 15N is moving
W at around 15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict
this wave well. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from
05N-15N between 44W-57W. Environmental conditions are currently
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could
form on Sunday or early next week while the system moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive
for development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out
of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon,
if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. The system has a medium chance for
tropical formation through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 26W and S of 19N is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict
this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of
the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W. Refer to the
section above for details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82W and S of
20N is moving W at 15 kt. A 1008 mb low is centered E of the wave
axis near 18N76W. Scattered moderate convection is over SW Haiti
and Jamaica from 16N-19N between 73W-77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N26W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to 09N50W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 10N54W to the coast of Guyana
near 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical
waves section, clusters of scattered moderate convection are
along the coast of W Africa from 05N-19N between 10W-19W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-10N
between 29W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered over North Carolina near 35N77W. This feature is
keeping an east to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds near the
eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate E/SE winds on the central and
west Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is over the Straits of
Florida.

High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf
waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten over the
eastern Gulf through Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas. New high pressure will develop
over the northern Gulf by early next week with the pressure
gradient slackening, and wind and sea conditions improving through
the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and
surface low moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW
Venezuela and N Colombia mostly due to the proximity of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Isolated moderate convection is
also inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean,
while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

The tropical wave along 52W continues to produce only
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to strong upper-level
winds, significant development of this system is not expected
while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the
weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of high terrain.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Hurricane Jerry.

A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from
31N60W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the front. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 32N43W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong winds across the western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of
74W.

Tropical Storm Jerry near 21.4N 64.0W 995 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry will
move to 22.7N 65.4W this afternoon, 24.3N 66.7W Sun morning,
26.0N 67.2W Sun afternoon, 27.3N 67.4W Mon morning, and 29.8N
66.9W Tue morning. Jerry will strengthen to a hurricane once it is
N of the area near 33.2N 63.7W early Wed, and change little in
intensity as it moves to 36.7N 60.0W early Thu. Meanwhile, large
remnant northerly swell will continue to impact the Atlantic
forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net