[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Jerry is centered near 20.5N 62.8W at 21/0300 UTC or
140 nm N of Anguilla moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70
kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
elsewhere from 18N-23N between 59W-65W. On the forecast track, the
center of Jerry will pass well north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Saturday, pass well east of the southeastern
Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on
Monday. Little change in strength is forecast during the several
days, and Jerry could remain a hurricane through Monday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 49W S of 16N with a
1012 mb surface low centered near 11N49W, is moving W at around
15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 05N-15N
between 44W-57W. Environmental conditions are currently conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward, crossing the Windward Islands Saturday night and
Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive
for development early next week once the wave moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over the Windward Islands over the weekend, and interests on those
islands should monitor the progress of this system. The system
has a medium chance for tropical formation through the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 25W and S of 19N is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict
this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of
the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 49W. Refer to the
section above for details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 79W and S of
18N is moving W at 10 kt. A 1008 mb low is centered E of the wave
axis near 18N74W. Scattered moderate convection is over SW Haiti
and Jamaica from 16N-19N between 73W-77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N25W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 10N47W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 10N52W to the coast of Guyana
near 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical
waves section, clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 05N-19N between
10W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
04N-10N between 27W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered over the Carolinas. This feature is keeping an east
to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds near the eastern Gulf and
gentle to moderate E/SE winds on the central and west Gulf.
Isolated moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida.

High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf
waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten over the
eastern Gulf through Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas to 9 or 10 ft. New high pressure
will develop over the northern Gulf by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and
surface low moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW
Venezuela and N Colombia mostly due to the proximity of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Isolated moderate convection is
also inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean,
while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

The 1008 mb low near 18N74W has a slight chance to develop into a
tropical cyclone over the next few days. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding
over portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica this weekend. The
next tropical wave that will approach the Windward Islands this
weekend has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
Refer to the section above for details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Hurricane Jerry.

A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from
31N59W to 23N72W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the front. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 32N44W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
winds across the western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of 74W.

Hurricane Jerry near 20.2N 63.1W 991 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW
at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Jerry will
move to 21.2N 64.8W Sat morning, 22.6N 66.6W Sat evening, 24.0N
68.1W Sun morning, 25.3N 68.7W Sun evening, and 27.9N 68.2W Mon
evening. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to near
30.8N 66.3W late Tue, and continue N of the area to near 34.5N
62.1W Wed. Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will continue
to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas
through the weekend.

$$
Formosa
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