[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Jerry is centered near 19.6N 62.0W at 20/2100 UTC or
120 nm N of Barbuda moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70
kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 90 nm of the center in quadrants. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be
well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but
Jerry could re-strengthen by early next week. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W S of 15N with a
surface low centered near 09N48W, is moving W at around 15 kt.
Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 45W-52W.
Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves westward crossing the Windward Islands
Saturday night and Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for development early next week once the
wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands
over the weekend, and interests on those islands should monitor
the progress of this system. The system has a medium chance for
tropical formation through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 23W and S of 17N is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict
this wave well. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 48W. Refer to the
section above for details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 77W and S of
18N is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
northern portion of the wave affecting Jamaica and adjacent
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 18N16W to 13N21W to 10N31W. The
ITCZ begins near 10N31W to 10N45W, then continues W of a tropical
wave near 07N52W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered over the Carolinas. This feature is keeping an east
to southeast flow across much of the basin. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh NE winds near the eastern Gulf and
gentle to moderate E/SE winds on the central and west Gulf.

The pressure gradient will tighten over the eastern Gulf through
Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and
building seas to 9 or 10 ft. New high pressure will develop over
the northern Gulf by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean through N
Honduras. A surface trough is reflected at the surface, and is
analyzed from 21N80W to a 1009 mb surface low near 15N82W. To the
east, another surface low is centered near 17N73W. Scattered
moderate convection is related to this low, affecting Hispaniola
and adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection also prevails
across Central America, due to the proximity of the monsoon
trough. This activity could reach the Caribbean waters south of
10N between 78W-82W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh winds across the central Caribbean, while light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere.

The broad area of low pressure just south of Hispaniola has a
slight chance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next
few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall may
produce flash flooding over portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, and
Jamaica this weekend. The next tropical wave that will approach
the Windward Islands this weekend has a medium chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone. Refer to the section above for
details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Hurricane Jerry.

A stationary front extends across the central and western
Atlantic, entering the forecast discussion area near 31N61W to
24N72W, then transitions to a weakening stationary front from
24N72W to 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N42W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the
western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of 74W.

Hurricane Jerry will move to 20.5N 63.9W Sat morning, weaken to a
tropical storm near 21.8N 65.9W Sat afternoon, 23.2N 67.5W Sun
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.5N 68.6W Sun afternoon,
and 27.0N 68.9W Mon afternoon. Jerry will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 30.0N 67.5W Tue afternoon, and near
Bermuda Wed. Large swell generated by an extratropical cyclone
located off the coast of Newfoundland will reach the Atlantic
forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend.

$$

ERA
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