[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Humberto has transitioned to a extratropical cyclone and is
centered near 40.0N 58.0W at 20/0300 UTC or 455 nm SSW of Cape
Race, Newfoundland moving NNE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 125 nm to
300 nm of the center in the N semicircle. A slower north-
northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. A turn toward
the east-northeast is expected to commence by Friday night.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
There will be no more tropical advisories for this system.

Hurricane Jerry is centered near 18.0N 57.2W at 20/0300 UTC or
335 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 100 nm of the center in the NW and SW
quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the NE quadrant
within 300 nm. A west- northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the
northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday and be well east- northeast of the southeastern Bahamas
on Sunday. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin by late
Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 45W S of 16N is moving
W 10 kt. Model guidance depicts this wave very well. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 43W-49W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W S of 18N is moving
W at 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave axis
near 13N75W. Another low pressure center is located in the wave's
environment near 16N73W with a central pressure of 1008 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N-18N between 68W-
78W. These features are also enhancing convection across the
south-central Caribbean, with numerous strong convection noted S
of 15N between 66W-73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 19N16W to
07N27W to 08N41W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave along 44W, scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough between 17W-24W and 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Imelda has weakened to an open wave with most of the convection
well inland across central Texas. There is still a possibility of
locally heavy rainfall to impact the Upper Texas and SW Louisiana
coast which could impact the NW Gulf. To the east, a weakening
cold front extends from 23N82W to 30N87W. No significant
convection is related to this front at this time. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong winds across the eastern Gulf, mostly
E of 85W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche
with moderate to fresh winds are seen across the rest of the
basin.

High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf
waters through Sunday. The pressure gradient will tighten over
the eastern Gulf tonight through Saturday night resulting in
fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas to 8 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean through NE
Honduras. A trough is reflected at the surface and is analyzed
from 20N76W to 16N85W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along this
trough. Upper level ridging across the central Atlantic also
extends into the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep
convection. However, there are some passing showers across the
Lesser Antilles through eastern Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin with
moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NW Caribbean.

The elongated area of low pressure has a slight chance of
development through the end of the week before the low moves
inland over Hispaniola. Locally heavy rainfall is likely over
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba into the weekend as the low moves
slowly northwest.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Jerry and Hurricane Humberto.

A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic,
entering the forecast discussion area near 31N58W and stretches
west to 24N74W. The front begins to weaken near 24N74W and extends
westward to northern Cuba near 23N82W. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted along this cold front. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered
near 30N39W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
winds across the western Atlantic, from N of 26N and W of 74W.

Humberto has become extratropical over the central North Atlantic
this evening. However, large swell generated by Humberto will
continue propagating south and impacting Atlantic waters N and E
of the Bahamas through the weekend. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jerry
near 18.0N 57.2W 976 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Jerry will move to 18.8N 59.3W
Fri morning, 20.0N 62.0W Fri evening, 21.2N 64.5W Sat morning,
22.6N 66.4W Sat evening, and 25.7N 68.4W Sun evening. Jerry will
change little in intensity as it turns northward well east of the
Bahamas Monday, then near Bermuda on Tuesday.

$$
AKR
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