[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 30.7N 73.5W at 17/1500 UTC
or 460 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85
kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
31N-34N between 68W-76W. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto is expected to pass just to the north of Bermuda
Wednesday night. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight
or Wednesday morning. Please read the latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC, or at the
website hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 12.9N 44.9W at 17/1500
UTC or 1010 nm ESE of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 10N-15N between 43W-48W. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Imelda is centered near 28.9N 95.3W at 17/1745 UTC
over Freeport Texas moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
along the Texas coast from 25N-31N between 92W-97W. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over
the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland
tonight and Wednesday. The depression is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of
15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far
southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods.See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W/33W S of 18N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 13N-17N between 32W-36W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W S of 19N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
mostly E of the wave axis from 10N-20N between 60W-70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W S of 17N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean
from 08N-12N between 76W-80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 13N20W to 14NN33W to 13N45W to 08N50W. The ITCZ begins near
08N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the
convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section,
isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 24W-34W.
Similar convection is from 06N-10N between 47W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S Imelda is along the Texas coast. See above. Isolated moderate
convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N between 92W-
96W. A 1018 mb high is centered over Mississippi near 33N89W
producing surface ridging over the E Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fair
weather is over the E Gulf. In the upper levels, strong subsidence
is over the E Gulf.

High pressure will build over the north central Gulf tonight,
supporting gentle to moderate winds through mid week, except for
moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan at night.
The high pressure will dissipate later in the week in advance of a
weak cold front that is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico then stall and dissipate over the southeast Gulf Fri
into Sat. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front over
the eastern Gulf Fri into Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across
the basin, with moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras and the Gulf of Venezuela.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate much of the basin.
Long period northerly swell will push through the Atlantic Ocean
passages today. T.D.Ten will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.2N
59.2W Fri morning. Ten will change little in intensity as it moves
over the Caribbean to 20.2N 64.7W early Sat, and continue to
22.5N 69.0W Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto,
T.D.Ten, and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A 1020 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 30N48W.
To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N30W
to 26N40W to 24N50W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front.

Hurricane Humberto near 30.7N 73.5W 961 mb at 11 AM EDT moving
ENE at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Humberto
will move to 31.1N 72.0W this evening, 31.8N 69.4W Wed morning,
33.1N 66.1W Wed evening. Humberto will move north of Bermuda Wed
night and farther into the central north Atlantic waters through
Sat, before weakening to an extratropical cyclone Sun. Northerly
swell will follow across the open waters in the wake of Humberto.
Tropical Depression Ten near 12.9N 44.9W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.8N 46.1W this
evening, move to 14.7N 47.9W Wed morning, 15.5N 50.2W Wed evening,
16.3N 52.9W Thu morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 18.2N
59.2W Fri morning.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net