[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 30.2N 75.9W at 16/2100 UTC
or 580 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80
kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 28N-
34N between 70W-80W. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
is forecast to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. Strengthening is
expected during the next 48 hours, and Humberto could become a
major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Please read
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC, or at the website hurricanes.gov for more
details.

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 10N42W. A tropical wave
extends from 18N42W to the low center to 02N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 41W-46W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a
tropical depression during the next day or so, while the system
moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward. There is a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 30W from 30N-
18N, is moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up well in model
diagnostics and TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis.

See section above for information on the tropical wave along 42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 64W from 06N-
20N, is moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in model
guidance and TPW imagery. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection covers a large area from 10N-19N between 57W-67W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 70W from 06N-
20N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the northern
portion of the wave, affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 21N17W to 12N33W to 10N49W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N49W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection
already discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the monsoon trough between 15W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N94W.
A surface trough extends from 27N87W to the low center to 25N96W.
Moderate winds are noted across most of the basin, with locally
fresh winds north of the trough. Scattered moderate convection
prevails north of 26N. A 1017 mb surface high is centered over
the W tip of Cuba near 24N86W.

Some slow development of the NW Gulf system is possible before
it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night
or Wednesday. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the central
and upper Texas coastal areas later this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Relatively dry air covers the central and west Caribbean. The
exception is south of 12N between 80W-83W, where scattered showers
are noted. The latest ASCAT pass depicts moderate to fresh trades
in the south-central Caribbean, while moderate winds prevail
elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate much of
center of the basin. Long period northerly swell will start
pushing through the Atlantic passages by Tuesday. The tropical
waves will continue moving across the basin with convection. A
low pressure center, that is developing to the east of the basin,
will move toward the Leeward Islands by late Friday, possibly as a
tropical cyclone.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto and
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1021 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 32N55W.
To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N33W
to 26N40W to 26N53W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 25N41W
to 23N45W. Scattered showers are noted along the front/trough.

Humberto will move to 30.4N 74.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 73.3W Tue
afternoon, 31.2N 71.3W Wed morning, 32.0N 68.7W Wed afternoon,
and 36.0N 61.3W Thu afternoon. Humberto will change little in
intensity as it moves near 40.1N 59.0W Fri afternoon, and weaken
as an extratropical cyclone over 41.7N 54.0W Sat. Northerly swell
will follow across the open waters in the wake of Humberto. The
cold front will weaken through the next 24-48 hours

$$

ERA
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