[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161822
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is centered near 29.9N 76.5W at 16/1500 UTC
or 620 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 28N-36N between 72W-79W. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto is forecast to approach
Bermuda Wednesday night. Strengthening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC, or at the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 11N40W. A tropical wave
extends from 18N40W to the low center to 03N40W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-13N between
40W-47W. Satellite data indicates the low has become better
defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward
to west- northwestward. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 30N-18N,
moving W at 20 kt. The wave shows up well in model diagnostics
and TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-16N
between 27W-35W.

See section above for information on the tropical wave along 41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt.  This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over a large area from 08N-20N between 56W-66W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in TPW imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-18N between 68W-71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 11N30W to
10N36W. The ITCZ continues from 10N36W to 11N39W. The ITCZ
resumes near 10N43W and extends to 08N50W to 10N59W. Aside from
the convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section
above, numerous strong convection is along the coast of W Africa
from 10N-16N between 11W-18W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is also from 03N-09N between 16W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N94W.
A surface trough extends from 27N88W to the low center to 24N96W.
10-15 kt cyclonic surface winds are noted around the system.
Scattered moderate convection is over a large area from 25N-30N
between 85W-98W. A 1017 mb high is centered over the W tip of
Cuba near 22N85W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the NW Gulf near 26N95W enhancing convection.

Some slow development of the NW Gulf ystem is possible before it
moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday tonight
or Wednesday. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the central
and upper Texas coastal areas later this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Relatively dry air covers the central and NW Caribbean. Deep-
layered ridging is over Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
over portions of the SW Caribbean and Central America from 09N-
14N between 75W-85W, including the waters near eastern
Nicaragua. The latest ASCAT pass from Sunday evening depicts
moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate much of the basin. Long
period northerly swell will push through the Atlantic Ocean
passages by Tuesday. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean
Sea will move through the western Caribbean Sea by late Tuesday,
and to the west of the basin by middle of the week. A tropical
wave will move through the eastern Caribbean Sea today, across
the central Caribbean Sea through mid week, and into the western
Caribbean Sea by late week. A low pressure center, that is
developing to the east of the area, will move toward the
Atlantic Ocean offshore waters of the Leeward Islands by late
Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto and
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N54W. A cold
front enters the discussion area near 32N34W to 27N40W to 25N50W
to 27N56W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 25N40W to 23N50W
to 24N56W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 27N59W enhancing showers.

Hurricane Humberto will move to 30.1N 76.5W this evening, to
30.4N 74.4W Tue morning, 30.7N 72.7W Tue evening, 31.3N 70.5W Wed
morning, and 32.2N 67.9W Wed evening. Humberto will change little
in intensity as it moves in the north central Atlantic early on
Friday. Humberto is forecast to weaken to an extratropical
cyclone on Saturday. Northerly swell will follow across the open
waters in the wake of Humberto.

$$
Formosa
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