[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 25.6N 75.0W at 13/2100
UTC or 210 nm ESE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island moving NW at 7
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 23N-28N between
69W-76W. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
very near the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and east
of the east coast of Florida during Saturday and Sunday. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
Please, read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC, or go to the website
hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31N from 06N-20N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in satellite
imagery and TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 05N-13N between 28W-35W. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while it moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 06N-20N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of
the wave axis. This wave is well depicted in model guidance, and
a satellite imagery shows turning. Conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development in a couple days, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while the system
moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and approaches the
eastern Caribbean Sea.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, from 08N-21N, moving west
at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-18N between
51W-61W. TPW imagery and 700 mb streamline analysis depicts the
wave well.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 07N-19N,
moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over
the SW Caribbean from 07N-14N between 78W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 10N24W to 10N31W
to 07N45W. The ITCZ continues from 07N45W to the coast of Guyana
near 06N58W. Aside from the convection already discussed in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 10N-15N between 13W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 23N97W to
18N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the
trough. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the
western half of the basin, while gentle to moderate winds prevail
east of 90W.

An upper-level low is over the central Gulf near 26N89W producing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of 92W to
include SW Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure over the southeastern United States will support
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds into the weekend.
Tropical Depression Nine currently over the central Bahamas will
track northwestward off the east coast of Florida through early
next week. The gradient between the cyclone and the high pressure
will allow for fresh winds over the NE Gulf through Sat. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the eastern Gulf
through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the western Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Isolated moderate convection is over the Leeward
Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
NW Venezuela and N Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the basin, except locally fresh winds
south of 14N between 68W-72W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate trades
that will at times pulse to fresh to strong in the south central
Caribbean. A tropical wave, with axis near 83W will move inland
across Central America tonight through Sat night. Another tropical
wave, with axis along 55W will move across the tropical N
Atlantic through late tonight, and across the eastern Caribbean on
Sat. A third and stronger tropical wave will approach the
tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean over the weekend into
early next week. It is expected to bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.D. Nine, and the
three tropical waves moving across the basin.

Surface ridging is over the eastern Atlantic N of 22N and E of 45W,
with fair weather.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is over the
central Atlantic near 29N58W. Scattered moderate convection is E
of the center N of 28N between 46W-52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is SW of the center from 22N-26N
between 58W-65W.

Tropical Depression Nine is near 25.6N 75.0W 1009 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
The tropical depression will move to near 26.2N 76.0W Sat
morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 27.4N 77.6W Sat
afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt gusts 45 kt. The
tropical storm will reach near 28.8N 78.5W late Sat night, to
near 30.0N 78.8W Sun afternoon, to near 31.0N 78.0W late Sun night
and strengthen to a hurricane near 31.5N 76.5W Mon afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds will then be 65 kt gusts 80 kt and will
increase slightly in strength as it reaches just north of the area
near 32.ON 73.0W on Tue and to near 32.5N 68.0W Wed. A tropical
wave may approach the waters south of 22N early next week.

$$
Formosa
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