[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, at 13/0300 UTC,
is near 23.8N 74.8W. This position also is about 280 nm/520 km to
the southeast of Freeport in Grand Bahama Island, and about 210
nm/390 km to the southeast of Great Abaco Island, in the Bahamas.
The feature is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 2 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Scattered moderate
to strong rainshowers, in individual clusters, are within 360 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant. The disturbance has been
meandering in the southeastern Bahamas. The system is expected to
move slowly northwestward on Friday, and continue that motion
through the weekend. It is anticipated to move across the central
and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east
coast of Florida on Saturday. The disturbance is forecast to
become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next
day or so. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours is high. Please, read the latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC, or go to
the website hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 330 nm of the wave in the W semicircle.
The atmospheric conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development in a couple days. It is possible that a tropical
depression may form early next week, while the system moves
quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 330 nm of the wave
in the W semicircle, mostly from 16N southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
within 100 nm to the east of the wave, and within 80 nm to the
west of the wave, from 14N to 16N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation also is near the
monsoon trough, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is moving through Central America, along 89W,
from 18N in Guatemala southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in western sections
of Honduras, and in Mexico and Guatemala between the tropical wave
and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 08N26W,
to 08N36W, to 07N43W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 210 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers at least the
northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers
cover the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward, especially within 210
nm to the west of the west coast of Florida.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in interior southern
Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 24N southward from 90W westward.

High pressure in the SE U.S.A. will support moderate to fresh
NE to E winds into the weekend. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine,
currently in the southeastern Bahamas, will move NE toward
Florida, through the end of the week. The gradient, between the
cyclone and the high pressure, will allow for east winds to
increase in the far NE Gulf of Mexico from Friday night into
Saturday, along with building seas. Scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms may spread westward from Florida into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, from Friday through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area that is to the NW
and W of the line that runs from 80W in Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Part of the precipitation that is in the NW corner is related to
the east central Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic circulation
center. Another part of the precipitation is related to the
cyclonic wind flow that is moving around Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in northern Colombia,
southwestward, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 11N southward from 75W westward.

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate trade winds,
that at times will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central
Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave will cross from the central
sections into the western sections on Friday morning, and then
exit into Central America on Sunday. A second tropical wave will
enter the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Friday night. A third and stronger tropical wave will approach
the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Caribbean Sea during
the weekend into early next week. This wave is expected to bring
widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and
building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 32N50W 26N52W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N northward between 46W
and 54W.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine near 23.9N 74.7W
1009 mb at 11 PM EDT is moving NW 7 knots. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine will move to near 24.6N 75.6W Fri morning
with maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts to 40 kt, to near 25.5N
77.2W Fri evening. then intensify to a tropical cyclone near 26.5N
78.8W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50
kt. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to intensify
slightly as it reaches to near 27.5N 80.2W Sat evening and move to
just near 28.8N 81.2W by early Sun, reach to near 29.8N 81.8W Sun
evening while weakening. The cyclone is forecast to move
northeastward early next week, entering the waters again, just
northwest of the area. A strong tropical wave may approach the
waters S of 22N early next week.

$$
MT
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